When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls?
36
1kṀ11k
resolved Apr 22
100%99.0%
Q2 2025
0.2%
Q3 2025
0.2%
Q4 2025
0.1%
Q1 2026
0.1%
Q2 2026
0.1%
Q3 2026
0.1%
Q4 2026
0.2%
not before 2027

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

Only FORSA & INSA counts

  • Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tiebreaker Rule Clarification:

    • A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.

  • Update 2025-04-08 (PST): - CDU/CSU counting: The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:

    • If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.

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German Politics
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@traders The Second Version of this Market is Live becouse the AfD isnt the biggest Party anymore https://manifold.markets/Base/when-will-the-afd-be-the-largest-pa-gszNuIILzy?play=true

why tf is a (partly)nazi party the most popular in my country 😭

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

two point difference one week later

@traders First poll where the AfD is the largest party with 25% (doesn't count of course because it's not INSA or Forsa)

What happens if they lead in FORSA but not INSA (or vice versa)?

@ThomasTwenhoven that would count and the quarter where that happens resolves to yes

@Base will CDU/CSU bei counted as one or as two parties?

@VincentVega one

@Base i didnt expect this to be valued so highly :(

That's a nice market!

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Base What about a draw?

@Primer a draw doesnt count

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