https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

Only FORSA & INSA counts

This is the second Version of this Market

Old/First Market: https://manifold.markets/Base/when-will-the-afd-be-the-largest-pa-zUyZgIUtO2

• A scenario where there is a draw (i.e., the AfD ties with another party in the polls) will not count as the AfD being the largest party.

• The CDU/CSU alliance is counted as a single party when determining which party is the largest according to the polls

• If the AfD leads in FORSA but not in INSA (or vice versa), the market will resolve to yes.