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MANIFOLD
Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?
7
Ṁ1kṀ645
Dec 31
11.76 %
expected
17%
7 - 8.9%
26%
9 - 10.9%
24%
11 - 12.9%
17%
13 - 14.9%
11%
15 - 16%
6%
Above 16%

Resolves to largest lead AfD holds over CDU/CSU in any single national poll published Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026 by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, Forsa, Verian, YouGov, INSA, or GMS
Gap = AfD% − CDU/CSU%
As of market creation, the largest gap so far is 7 points (INSA poll from May 16, 2026)

Market context
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