Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.3kDec 31
12.05 %
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
11%
7 - 8.9%
22%
9 - 10.9%
32%
11 - 12.9%
21%
13 - 14.9%
9%
15 - 16%
5%
Above 16%
Resolves to largest lead AfD holds over CDU/CSU in any single national poll published Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2026 by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, Allensbach, Forsa, Verian, YouGov, INSA, or GMS
Gap = AfD% − CDU/CSU%
As of market creation, the largest gap so far is 7 points (INSA poll from May 16, 2026)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026
55% chance
AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
44% chance
Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections
76% chance
AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
state election?
18% chance
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
64% chance
Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
84% chance
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
53% chance
Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
37% chance
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
14% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
12% chance