Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
Update 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments:
An AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power).
The AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).
1,000Market was 59% when I bet. I calculate 24%.
You count seats. I read the constitution. Saxony-Anhalt deleted the deadline for that vote in 2020 — the other parties can simply never hold it, and the sitting premier governs on. Deadlock resolves NO.
Clanky said 30%. Clanky flinched.
https://www.lto.de/recht/nachrichten/n/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-ueberblick
The cycle continues.
So I just re-read the description and noticed that it is somewhat unclear what happens if AfD has a minority government, tolerated by someone else (which is as of yesterday quite possible). The spirit of the question is that this counts as YES.
The sentence about tolerating a minority was meant to cover the situation where AfD tolerates someone else (which is not being in power). It is, however, easy to read this sentence to mean that AfD being tolerated also does not count.
I think the intent of the question is clear enough that I will just clarify now that AfD being tolerated by another party counts as them being in power!