There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists. Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions.
There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
Note that coalition here requires at least one other party working with the AfD. If the AfD receives an absolute majority in one of the elections and can rule without a coalition, then this also resolves NO.
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@traders There was some ambiguity in how an absolute majority AfD government without any coalition partners would resolve. I have now decided that this would resolve NO, a coalition requires multiple partners.
If you want to bet on the other interpretation, so whether the AfD will be in power with or without a coalition, check out this new market: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on
@traders There was some ambiguity in how an absolute majority AfD government without any coalition partners would resolve. I have now decided that this would resolve NO, a coalition requires multiple partners.
If you want to bet on the other interpretation, so whether the AfD will be in power with or without a coalition, check out this new market: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on
@rayman2000 Just to make sure: This is about a coalition and would resolve No if the AfD gained an absolute majority and ruled without forming a coalition. Correct?
@Primer My intention was not that, my intention was "in-power". I see how the phrasing does not necessarily cover that. I guess I could claim a coalition of one party is still kinda a coalition? But if people were trading under your assumption then I can be convinced to follow it.
@rayman2000 No idea whether others thought of that possibility, but my prediction would be it's way more likely to get an AfD government than a coalition with the AfD. I was betting on the assumption that you aimed for coalition instead of in power and wanted to check before making larger bets. I've instead sold my position now. It would make sense to clarify in the description. I suppose your intention aligns with the majority reading anyways, but it would not hurt to notify @traders if you add a clarification.
@rayman2000 And also, here is a market with the other interpretation: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on
@rayman2000 In my opinion, this is an exceptionally good way of handling a market with ambiguities. Maybe do an @traders as some will have interpreted things differently (traders are only notified by @traders if you, the creator, does it).
Also, I'd like to ping @mods: An ambiguous market handled this well is a rare sight.