Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
21
100Ṁ1456
2029
76%
chance

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013. In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.

This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.

The market resolves to NO if:

  • The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote

  • The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election

  • The AfD merges with another party and runs under a different name

The market will resolve based on the official final results as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).

Politics
World
Elections
Germany
German Politics
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These markets should be priced basically the same, but AfD is half the price on this market.

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