Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
13
100Ṁ10112029
40%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The AfD must get the biggest share of the votes/seats in the Bundestag in the next Bundestag election (currently scheduled for March 2029) for this bet to equate to True. CSU and CDU will be counted together as one party.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@fedora You might want to change this to "in the next Bundestag election (currently scheduled for March 2029)", as the date might change and I suppose you just mean the next election.
Also please specify whether you'll count CDU/CSU combined or individually.
People are also trading
Related questions
When will the AfD be the largest party in Germany according to polls? V2
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
1% chance
Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections
38% chance
Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
64% chance
Will the German political party AfD (right to far-right) get over 35% of the votes in the next election?
20% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
58% chance
Will AfD win absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
12% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
39% chance
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
83% chance