Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections

100Ṁ1830

2029

41%

chance

ALL

This market will resolve to YES if the AfD wins the most seats in the next German federal election (expected in 2029).

This market will resolve to NO if any other party wins more seats than the AfD in the next German federal election.

If there is a tie for the most seats between the AfD and another party, this market will resolve to YES.

The resolution will be based on the official election results as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) of German

Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Party Count:
- CDU and CSU will be counted based on how they appear on the ballot.
- They will be counted as two separate parties unless they officially merge, in which case they will be counted as one party.

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@NinoSchneider Will CDU and CSU count as one (the Union) or two different parties?

@Primer @NinoSchneider can we get some clarification on this?

@Primer it wil count as they appear on the ballot. So they will most likely be counted as 2. The only way they will be counted as 1 if they decide to officially merge.