This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.

If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are unhappy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely damaging, vastly outweighs any benefits, and was worse than what other post WWII presidents have done, then I will resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.

EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).

Market will be resolved seriously, even though it is a parody of https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-prominent-rationalists-judge-t#63ou9fccnl4. I will try to be as fair and objective as possible. Furthermore, I will not bet here.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Prominent rationalist voices considered:

  • Scott Alexander

  • Nick Bostrom

  • Alternatives if their opinions are not available (AI summary of creator comment)