Resolution Criteria
The market resolves YES if:
Trump's popularity among MAGA Republicans drops after a recession AND it is a matter of mainstream consensus that this popularity drops was caused by the recession (or expectation of a recession).
Note that this question is specific to MAGA Republicans, not the electorate in general. We will measure this by looking at if there is a significant drop in the number of people who strongly support Trump.
The market resolves N/A if:
A recession doesn't occur during his term
Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Current MAGA Republicans:
Interpret MAGA Republicans as the group of individuals who currently identify as such.
A significant number of people ceasing to identify as MAGA Republicans will count as a drop in Trump’s popularity among the group.
Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The criterion for a significant drop is defined as at least a 5% drop in the percentage of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump.
The measurement must be observed over at least 3 consecutive polling cycles from multiple outlets (specifically Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov).
In March 2025, the baseline numbers are set at 55% (Reuters/Ipsos) and 78% (Economist/YouGov), with resolution reached when these drop to 50% and 73% respectively.
The drop must be clearly attributable to economic factors, as determined by mainstream consensus and the creator's judgement.
1,000