Resolution Criteria
The market resolves YES if:
Trump's popularity among MAGA Republicans drops after a recession AND it is a matter of mainstream consensus that this popularity drops was caused by the recession (or expectation of a recession).
Note that this question is specific to MAGA Republicans, not the electorate in general. We will measure this by looking at if there is a significant drop in the number of people who strongly support Trump.
The market resolves N/A if:
A recession doesn't occur during his term
Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Current MAGA Republicans:
Interpret MAGA Republicans as the group of individuals who currently identify as such.
A significant number of people ceasing to identify as MAGA Republicans will count as a drop in Trump’s popularity among the group.
Update 2025-04-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The criterion for a significant drop is defined as at least a 5% drop in the percentage of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump.
The measurement must be observed over at least 3 consecutive polling cycles from multiple outlets (specifically Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov).
In March 2025, the baseline numbers are set at 55% (Reuters/Ipsos) and 78% (Economist/YouGov), with resolution reached when these drop to 50% and 73% respectively.
The drop must be clearly attributable to economic factors, as determined by mainstream consensus and the creator's judgement.
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@TheAllMemeingEye I would say that the criteria should be whether the number of Republicans who strongly approves of him is there is at least a 5% drop over several polling cycles and multiple polling outlets. As far as I know, Reuters/Ipsos and the Economist/YouGov both measure the number of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump. In March 2025, the number of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump is 55% according to Reuters/ipsos (the question is "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?") and 78% according to Economist/YouGov (the question is "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?"). So I will resolve YES if his numbers drop to 50%/73% respectively for at least 3 polling cycles in the respective polls AND the drop is clearly due to economics (this will mostly be down to mainstream consensus and my judgement, but to some extent we can tell by whether his polling becomes especially bad on the economy among Republicans).
@EdisonYi thanks for clarifying 👍
Based on the yougov data, it seems that the Jan 6 capital storming caused more than 5% drop, and that didn't even affect most people's livelihoods directly, so this seems pretty likely
@DanielBdeaea please interpret MAGA Republicans as existing MAGA republicans, so I would say that significant numbers of people not identifying as MAGAs counts as Trump becoming less popular among the group.