Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the primary operational use of Marine Expeditionary Forces deployed to the Middle East during 2026. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. military statements, Department of Defense announcements, credible reporting from major news outlets, and publicly available military assessments.

• Invasion of Kharg Island: Resolves YES if MEU ground forces conduct an amphibious assault and establish control over Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub.

• Taking Militarized Islands near the Strait of Hormuz: Resolves YES if MEU forces conduct operations to seize or neutralize Iranian military positions on islands including Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Larak, or Hengam.

• Invasion of Iran: Resolves YES if MEU forces conduct a sustained ground invasion of mainland Iranian territory beyond limited island operations.

• Attempt at Confiscation of Nuclear Material: Resolves YES if MEU forces conduct operations specifically targeting Iranian nuclear facilities or enriched uranium stockpiles.

If multiple outcomes occur, all applicable answers resolve YES. If none of these specific operations occur and MEUs are used for other purposes (e.g., escort operations, humanitarian missions, embassy evacuations), the market resolves NO for all answers.