###Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026. Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action. The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone. Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.
Added answers can be of any granularity.
I won't bet in this market.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks on boats/vessels outside a country's territory do not count for that country's resolution.
Troops stationed outside their home country: Attacks on these troops do not count toward their home country, but do count toward the country where they are stationed.
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Territorial control rules:
Areas controlled by a country are considered that country's territory (e.g., Russian-controlled areas count as Russia, Ukrainian-controlled areas count as Ukraine)
Breakaway territories count as both: If a territory has broken away, attacks there count for both the breakaway territory itself AND the country it broke away from (e.g., SDF-controlled areas count as both Syria and SDF/Rojava)
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combined answer options (e.g., "Russia and/or Ukraine") will resolve independently from their individual component answers. A strike in either Russia or Ukraine would resolve both the combined option AND the individual country options.
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I see a possible point of contention with Russia and Ukraine there. I think that areas controlled by Russia are considered Russia and so for Ukraine (if they'll be conquering any Russian territory).
Same goes as a general rule. If a country controls an area it is considered their territory.
But if it's a break away territory it counts both as the country it broke away from and as it's own territory. So for example SDF-controlled area is considered both Syria and SDF/rojava, if someone were to add that answer.
@someoneR5c8l Made a “Russia and/or Ukraine” answer to resolve this. Should resolve YES for any strike in either region
@KJW_01294 it will resolve it for this specific option :)
"Russia" and "Ukraine" will still be resolved independently
@realDonaldTrump @Fion boats won't count, troops of a country that are stationed outside of that country also don't count (they do count for the country they are stationed in tho)