###Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES for any place where the US conducts military strikes, airstrikes, drone strikes, or armed military operations during 2026. Resolution is based on official US government statements, credible news reporting from major outlets, or documented military action. The US has already conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, so Venezuela would resolve YES if it is attacked again.
For an answer to resolve YES, there must be documented evidence of kinetic military action (strikes, raids, or armed operations) rather than non-military interventions, sanctions, or covert operations alone. Multiple countries can resolve YES simultaneously.
Added answers can be of any granularity.
I won't bet in this market.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks on boats/vessels outside a country's territory do not count for that country's resolution.
Troops stationed outside their home country: Attacks on these troops do not count toward their home country, but do count toward the country where they are stationed.
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Territorial control rules:
Areas controlled by a country are considered that country's territory (e.g., Russian-controlled areas count as Russia, Ukrainian-controlled areas count as Ukraine)
Breakaway territories count as both: If a territory has broken away, attacks there count for both the breakaway territory itself AND the country it broke away from (e.g., SDF-controlled areas count as both Syria and SDF/Rojava)
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combined answer options (e.g., "Russia and/or Ukraine") will resolve independently from their individual component answers. A strike in either Russia or Ukraine would resolve both the combined option AND the individual country options.
Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US attacks on the US within US borders: Must be a military operation using the same bodies used for external attacks (not police, ICE, or other domestic law enforcement agencies).
Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Answer options do not need to be sovereign entities, but they must be well-defined geographic locations or territories. Vague or non-territorial entities may be resolved N/A or renamed to specific geographic locations.
1,000People are also trading
@DanzoAlerantos does Hezbollah have a concrete territory in the Americas? if so, can you give some reference for that? if not, I'll resolve to N/A
@someoneR5c8l Hezbollah does not have any territorial control over the Americas, theres this, allegedly, but you can N/A it if you want.
@DanzoAlerantos you can rename the option to "Margarita Island" if you want. the options don't have to be sovereign entities, but i do need them to be well-defined
@someoneR5c8l Is the Yemen option inclusive of Houthi controlled Yemen, or does it only include the area controlled by the official government?
@IAF anything inside the internationally recognized borders of Yemen counts as Yemen, so including the Houthi controlled areas
@journcy I'd say that it has to a military operation, not like something by the police or ICE or something like that. like, using the same bodies used for external attack.
I honestly don't know how such a thing would look like, but maybe @realDonaldTrump has another opinion
@diadematus Two strikes in Somalia this year: https://www.africom.mil/search?query=somalia
Looking at the history of US military strikes on wikipedia, I still find it hard to believe three of these could resolve yes in a year. Possible, but not a strong bet. Still betting no on the group of them. If you think certain ones are way more likely, you can make mana from me!
Here's an easy bet:
I think the US can possibly fit in two other big attacks this year? If it attacks as much as possible? Three is pretty unlikely. Even if we assume the worst possible goals from the US, I struggle to see how it would avoid retaliation after three strikes, and I think it knows that so it won't do the third attack.
Which means the sum of the odds can't be over 200%.
I just bet "no" on everything but open waters XD
Even after that, the top 4 entries (excluding international waters) still sum to 193 right now.
@DannyqnOht i would say that this calculation fits for extraordinary attacks. bombing in syria or yemen can easily be a freebie :P