MANIFOLD
Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
18
Ṁ1kṀ3.6k
Dec 31
64%
chance

As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).

See also:

/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz

/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2

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Over the last 12 years, at least one new major war has been added to the list in 8 of them. In the past 5 years, at least one new major war has been added during each of them.

2025: 2

2024: 1

2023: 3
2022: 2

2021: 1

2020: 0

2019: 0

2018: 1

2017: 0

2016: 1

2015: 0

2014: 1

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