Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
18
Ṁ1kṀ3.6kDec 31
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will something happen in 2026?
68% chance
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
19% chance
Will the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
5% chance
2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?
6% chance
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
43% chance
Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
5% chance
What countries will the US be at war with in 2029?
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8% chance