Will 500,000 Palestinian civilians be displaced from Gaza by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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Want to make an equivalent market for 2024? it should be much more informative

Sad that the AI knows what this looks like.

predicted NO

@BTE Where does your optimism come from? And how many do you think have been displaced till date?

bought Ṁ95 of YES

@Akzzz123 Zero have, except a few dual citizens. But there is no way to get around it anymore, civilians are going to be allowed to leave soon. I think it just depends whether or not enough countries will agree to accept 500,000 of them cumulatively.

predicted YES

@Akzzz123 The US could be the primary catalyst. Biden almost has no choice but to accept refugees if he wants to convince other countries to also take in refugees. Just letting Gazans languish as refugees inside a preexisting refugee camp is going to badly damage his already low approval.

predicted NO

@BTE You do realise allowing refugees to leave would amount to ethnic cleansing of Gaza? That would look really bad on Biden.

predicted YES

@Akzzz123 Of course I know it’s ethnic cleansing. I have been saying that since this all started. But who cares at this point, they are just going to suffer for the foreseeable and that is much worse. If Biden loses either way then he should do the right thing and drop his campaign so he won’t be compromised.

predicted NO

@Akzzz123 Forcing them to leave or die is the ethnic cleansing. Refusing to give them a place to go just removes one of the two options.

The parallels to the situation with the M S St Louis are depressing.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@ElmerFudd Thanks for remindijng me of the underpriced 0.25m+ bucket there.

predicted NO
predicted YES

@DanPowell I fear never.

predicted NO

@BTE I’m confused by why you have such a large position predicting that they will be.

predicted YES

@DanPowell One bad trade for 1000 YES at 40. Ouch. Still could easily happen. There are 1mm people just waiting to cross into Egypt. Ireland has already offered to take refugees. Others will too. The US probably will.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

Unlikely that they will be allowed to leave alive.

predicted YES

@DanPowell There are at least 500K children in Gaza. They should be prioritized and should be welcomed into the US. This single action is maybe the most significant step toward long-term peace I can think of.

predicted NO

@BTE “Voluntary deportation” of all the children and their parents, or separate half a million children from their cultural heritage and have people from another culture raise them?

predicted YES

@DanPowell Take the entire families. I don’t care. I just assume Israel will. If I was living in Gaza right now I would assume I was good as dead. Take them to somewhere where they can have self determination. Gaza has never offered a path to that fundamental right.

predicted NO

@BTE Some kind of kindertransport could be a reasonably effective method of… accomplishing some goal.

History repeats itself whether or not you study it.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I've left some limit orders here. If anyone wants to bet a bigger amount, you can reply here with your offer.

predicted YES

/BTE/will-more-than-15mm-gazans-be-inter Created this market for internally displaced.

bought Ṁ32 of NO

Big limit order at 50% sitting for any takers

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@BenjaminShindel Currently looks like 1.4mm displaced so okay!

predicted NO

@BTE what are you talking about?

predicted NO

@BenjaminShindel there are currently close to zero displaced from gaza.

predicted NO

@BenjaminShindel there are many civilians internally displaced WITHIN Gaza, but very few displaced FROM Gaza

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@BenjaminShindel They can’t go back to homes that don’t exist anymore.

sold Ṁ24 of NO

@BTE Now you are just being deliberately obtuse

predicted YES

@Agh I honestly have no idea why I missed the previous comments here. I only just saw them all. I had originally not given the careful thought that I should have to the specific wording. I assume people are probably going to be upset no matter what I do now but I will go with the specific words and say 500,000 must be displaced from Gaza completely.

predicted NO

@BTE Thank you!

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