Includes both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended. [

see criteria below for what counts as an 'Israeli source' and for the war to be 'over']

This market is only for Palestinian deaths, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the deaths are related to the war). This will not include any deaths from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.

The market's comment section got very active, so I'm publishing a summary of all the relevant comments here.

 organization, with their HQ and primary operations in Israel. Subsidiaries of foreign networks, such as CNN or Al-Jazeera will 

3. Death toll figures reported by non-Israeli international organizations, such as the UN, 

 - the market is about Israeli sources only (added 

sources will be accepted regardless of whom they're quoting as the source of their numbers. 

4. Social media posts will not be accepted unless they are from a 

, even if issued by Israeli media, will not be used as inputs because they are aimed at a foreign audience. (added 

Please submit more sources that meet the criteria above in the comments!

- There's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that lasts for at least 30 days. [

Currently pending, the war will be considered over if ceasefire persists till Feb 19th, 2025

- There's a 30-day period in which fewer than 100 people die on the Palestinian side due to the war, even in the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement.

 after the ceasefire started will be used, with a simple average of all sources. If any given ceasefire is interrupted, the market will be extended until next time. Current 

- If a single publication publishes multiple numbers within the accepted time period, the creator will select the number they find most trustworthy or average the latest numbers if no specific number is highlighted.

- Each publication/source only counts as one input into the final average.

- [Now moot, we have post-Jan 19th numbers] 

Older numbers will be used if no new numbers are published between Jan 19th and Mar 5th.

I've sold all my positions to avoid bias when resolving this market.

Since the war has lasted much longer than expected, resolving this market will likely be very difficult. Once the war is complete, I will ask for help from both Israeli and Palestinian Manifold/Metaculus users to help determine a fair estimate from Israeli sources.

. If the ceasefire is still considered 'active' on 

to give 2 more weeks for Israeli sources to publish estimates. Note that the criteria for what counts as the war being over have been pre-committed to and will not change at this point. (see 

) - also means that this market will not reopen if hostilities resume after Feb 19th.