How many Gazans will starve to death by the end of 2025?
Basic
27
6.0k
2026
16%
250+
14%
500+
10%
1,000+
8%
2,000+
7%
4,000+
6%
16,000+
6%
8,000+

Resolves inclusively based on the highest concrete estimate given by a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program of the number of Gazans who have starved to death for reasons related to the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.

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This market should swing greatly in response to either a Rafah invasion or a ceasefire.

@Panfilo No the answer will just be 0 in any case, the US is already delivering aid to the port. Israel has a very strong incentive not to starve the Gazans. And they won't. Reports of famine in this war have been grossly exaggerated.

I'm not sure if the UN or WFP give a clear "starved to death" figure. In any case the number of people that have their bodies shut down because of a lack of sustenance is a very conservative estimate of the number of deaths due to a famine.

People suffering from malnutrition are less able to defend against disease. A concentration camp with 40k prisoners and enough food for 30k people might have 20k prisoners die from an epidemic and 3k people starve to death. I would argue that 23k people died because of a lack of access to food, even though only 3k people strictly starved to death.

Also, people who lack food or anticipate lacking food are more likely to engage in dangerous behavior that can get themselves killed. Food poisoning becomes increasingly common as people expand their criteria of what food is worth eating. People might attempt to storm barriers between them and sources of food and get killed by those that maintain those barriers. People might put themselves in physical danger against neutral parties. People might even kill other people for cannibalism purposes. People might just give up on their own lives and try to take as many of the people that did this to them with them without any plan for getting food.

People rarely just sit around to let themselves die.

Al Jazeera estimates that at least 118 people died in the Flour Massacre on February 29th. It seems silly not to attribute those deaths to the food shortage, but they did not literally starve to death.

@dph121 This market will use the standards of comorbidity used by whatever the highest estimate is from a major international body in the timeframe indicated.

@Panfilo I'm closing because of the unclear resolution criteria, though I still think there is almost zero chance that 250 or more people starve to death in Gaza.

What do you mean by "the current phase of the conflict"? What would you interpret as the current phase ending?

@beepbooper An end to Israel’s ongoing offensive, plus restoration of pre-October aid, plus ~3 months of relative stability during which lagging death numbers are made more accurate.

Arb not what you'd expect with the simpler market.

I would bet all these options extremely low if I had spare mana, but this market simply resolves about fifteen months too far into the future to be worth participating in

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