How many Gazans will starve to death by the end of 2025?

10kṀ21k

2026

67%

<250

50%

250+

35%

500+

24%

1,000+

14%

2,000+

4,000+

8,000+

16,000+

Resolves inclusively based on the highest concrete estimate given by a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program of the number of Gazans who have starved to death for reasons related to the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.

Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the interpretation of 'starved to death' for the purposes of this market:
- Deaths reported as due to malnutrition will count.
- Deaths resulting from consuming awful semi-edible food substitutes (where this leads to death) will count.
- Deaths resulting from consuming only a small fraction of the calories a human needs to survive (where this leads to death) will count.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an estimate to be considered 'given by a major international body':
- The international body can be reporting or relaying figures from another source (e.g., the United Nations reporting figures provided by the Gaza Ministry of Health). Such relayed figures will be considered 'given by' the international body for the purposes of this market.