Resolves inclusively based on the highest concrete estimate given by a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program of the number of Gazans who have starved to death for reasons related to the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the interpretation of 'starved to death' for the purposes of this market:
Deaths reported as due to malnutrition will count.
Deaths resulting from consuming awful semi-edible food substitutes (where this leads to death) will count.
Deaths resulting from consuming only a small fraction of the calories a human needs to survive (where this leads to death) will count.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an estimate to be considered 'given by a major international body':
The international body can be reporting or relaying figures from another source (e.g., the United Nations reporting figures provided by the Gaza Ministry of Health). Such relayed figures will be considered 'given by' the international body for the purposes of this market.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Miscarriages are not expected to be counted.
Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The Gaza Health Ministry's numbers for malnutrition deaths will be the primary resolution source, provided they are treated as reliable and reported by major international bodies (e.g., the WFP).
If international bodies stop reporting these numbers or deem them suspect, a different resolution standard will be sought.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Gaza Health Ministry (GHM) numbers will continue to be used as the primary data source as long as neutral proxies like CNN and Wikipedia do not migrate to a better primary data source. The creator notes that historically, the GHM has not been shown to be dramatically more biased than other native data sources.
Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close at the end of 2025 but may not resolve immediately. The creator reserves the right to delay resolution for a substantial amount of time if:
Retroactive data is trickling in, or
There are signs of a large data drop in the future
However, if the Gaza Health Ministry signals that starvation deaths have been fully counted and have stopped, the market will resolve promptly.
Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close at the end of 2025 but may not resolve immediately. The creator will go 3 to 6 months at a time without resolving based on:
The progress of the peace plan
How stabilized things look
Whether the count appears to be complete
1,000People are also trading
@nathanwei Yes, for example if people were eating a really awful semi-edible food substitute and started dying, that would still count for the purposes of this market. Same with people eating only a small fraction of the calories a human needs to survive and dying of that.
@nathanwei we’ll have to wait a while for a full accounting as death trolls are estimated to be undercounted and that does not include November or December. Whether that will happen with a definitive source in time for market resolution is not yet clear.
@KyleY Again we don't know what the actual tolls are and there could well be errors in both directions.
@KyleY Most of these are about the non-trauma death toll. Alex de Waal seems to be saying 10K is for non trauma deaths, and is basing it on the IPC famine declaration where the IPC claimed 2/10K excess non-trauma deaths. See here: https://worldpeacefoundation.org/blog/how-many-people-have-died-of-famine-in-gaza-updated/
Bear in mind that there is a huge difference between non-trauma deaths and acute malnutrition deaths. The latter is the subject of this market. The former include deaths from cardiac arrest or something.
The IPC report is also wrong in the 2 per 10K claim and mis-cited Spagat et al to get there, see https://x.com/NuritBaytch/status/1966625520826700008 and https://x.com/Michael_Spagat/status/1970070607749341612 . In any case, the market is about acute malnutrition deaths, not all excess non-trauma deaths, which is what de Waal is estimating based on the IPC famine declaration.
Your other screenshots are not based on acute malnutrition deaths either. Just excess deaths.
The point is we know the numbers are off but we also know all available evidence points to the toll being higher, not lower, in aggregate.
there is a huge difference between non-trauma deaths and acute malnutrition deaths
Starvation and malnutrition induced deaths are a subset of non-trauma deaths.
A major mechanism driving undercounting has been well documented:
a lack of medical infrastructure and the widespread murder of medical personnel reduces the number of deaths which can be medically examined and included in the tally. We should also expect that people denied food will also often be denied medical care and autopsies.
Whether a more comprehensive tally will happen in a timely manner is not clear, it’s exceedingly unlikely that all bodies will be recovered, carefully examined and counted but the current count should be understood to be a lower bound.
@nathanwei please stop drastically editing your comment if you wish to engage. I wrote this based on the version I saw at the time and have no interest in responding to all the changes you have made over 5 different versions of this.
@KyleY Again the figure de Waal estimated is for non-trauma deaths. It is based off the IPC report which contains errors and inflates these deaths by mis-citing Spagat et al. It is not for people starving to death. It's been months since the ceasefire and yet the acute malnutrition toll remains in the 400s. I agree that general undercounting due to bodies in the rubble etc is a real thing. I linked a tweet of Spagat et al who estimated the actual death toll being 90K or 95K or something. But that's not so relevant to this market.
I edited my comment to make sure I am being precise and correct.
@nathanwei You can’t edit things in later and then say, “again” in your response. This is no way to converse.
Given the resolution style (closing then holding till numbers come out) I am betting as though this estimated statistic is exaggerated by 50% (which I don’t think it is, but like it states finding core confirmed numbers is a lot harder than estimates).
https://worldpeacefoundation.org/blog/how-many-people-have-died-of-famine-in-gaza-updated/
@Magnify for the record - even in the most pro Zionist stance, I’d find it incredibly difficult to believe that between the 463 publication and EOY, 37 people didn’t starve to death, even if it’s not aid restriction related. Stuff happens in active war zones, people trapped etc.
These people are currently living in squalor, frequently without electricity they’d also have food contamination and storage issues, and as said before if these lead to malnutrition deaths this also counts.
@Magnify It's also not clear if all of those 463 actually starved to death. There could have been misreporting. You could just as easily say that it's the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health so they could have been fudging the numbers. It's impossible to know what the ground truth is. We use the numbers that we get. @Panfilo has made it pretty clear what the resolution criteria are.
I also should say that right before they stopped reporting the numbers, the total number of malnutrition deaths was down to 3-4/week and dropping. So it's easy for me to believe it is in fact less than 37 by the end of the year.
@nathanwei it would need to be 3.08 per week average. Even taking you completely at your word, that should be pretty close to 50/50 for 500+
@nathanwei so it remained above the required average the entire time before it stopped being regularly reported? Again, even with complete faith in those numbers I’d not be betting 500 down
@nathanwei these numbers once finalized may be the basis for resolution, but I believe consensus of reputable sources was also an alternate.
The average required is 3.08, again according to those numbers they remained above this average the entire time even with a continued drop it would need to fall to 0 pretty quickly, which again 50/50.
@Magnify No, according to those sources it was like 40/week, then fell to 7, then 3.5, then nothing.
@Magnify I mean they stopped reporting any acute malnutrition deaths, so that's a confirmed 0.
@nathanwei non reporting is not confirming 0. That’s why the market will pause And wait for numbers to be released later on
@Magnify I reserve the right to close at EOY but not resolve for a substantial amount of time if we are seeing a trickle of retroactive data, or signs of a large data drop in the future. However, if the Gaza Health Ministry signals that starvation deaths really did get fully counted and have stopped, that would be cause for prompt resolution.
@Panfilo If the GHM just stops reporting and there are just no more updates, about how long will you wait for resolution? So far it's been about a month. By the end of the year it will have been almost three months. Do you want to wait say another three months? Or until 2027?
@nathanwei I'll likely close the market at EOY and then go 3 to 6 months at a time without resolving based on the progress of the peace plan and how stabilized things look, to see if the count is over.
@Panfilo I agree with this. Everything is a bit uncertain since there is still an active conflict going on so I think we'll get a more accurate number later.