Will more than 1.5mm Gazans be internally displaced at the end of 2023?
resolved Dec 31

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bought Ṁ40 of YES



UNRWA reporting on the 12th of November (or earlier): "almost 1.6 million have been displaced across the Gaza strip since 7 October"

Shouldn't this be resolved yes?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@rarionalTrader This is about the state of the situation at the end of the year.

predicted YES


Oh, my bad.

If those who were displaced are rehoused in refugee camps facilitated by UNRWA or someone else before then, do you still consider them internally displaced?

predicted YES

@rarionalTrader Why wouldn’t people in refugee camps be the central example of displaced people?

predicted YES

@rarionalTrader If the refugee camp is outside Gaza no, then they are displaced from Gaza and their status fundamentally changes. I have a market for that too.

predicted YES

@DanPowell I think something like 1.2 million Palestinians were already living in UNRWA refugee camps before this war, I'd assume many of them are among the 1.6 million who have been displaced

predicted YES

@rarionalTrader Before October 7, you mean?

predicted YES

Typo: “by at the end of…”

predicted YES

@ElmerFudd Can’t I have it both ways?!? LOL.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@ElmerFudd It’s 1.5 m, not 1.5 mm.

predicted YES

@DanPowell “mm” is “thousand thousand” actually.

predicted YES

@BTE I thought K was the metric prefix and M was the Roman numeral for “thousand”.

predicted YES

@DanPowell Mil mil is thousand thousand in french

@BTE I can't get behind this. I see the finance and accounting miscreants use "MM" for million at my job (strangely, they don't use "M" for thousand nor "MMM" for billion, instead using "K" and "B" respectively). Rome has been dead for centuries; use "M" for million!