Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
For a bigger range:
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately. Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.
1,000People are also trading
@Balasar The previous ceasefire had a ton of fire during it. The new one is supposed to be much more thorough based on its specific points, though we don't have all the details yet. I have divested from this market already so if it's ambiguous, I will not bet further and will do my best to be neutral re: when we stop counting.
@67 It's very unprofitable to buy small shares of NO at a low percentage. Would you like help or a demonstration for setting more profitable limit orders that automatically buy NO at higher percentages?
@Marnix My friend and I colluded to break through your limit order at 33% because we wanted more YES and we were impatient.
@Chumchulum Of course we are not impatient for Gazans to starve. We are impatient for the truth to come out, and we believe this to be true.
@Marnix Now that you've tested our confidence with the limit order: Are you ready to recoup your cancelled out YES shares at the newly lower price?
@Lemming Shame, YES holders wanted to grind it out with you over the next few weeks or so. Now it will take slightly longer.
NO holders will sell when they hear the sheer amount of stories from survivors in a tentatively-peaceful Gaza. The ceasefire will not un-starve anyone, and it becomes a matter of matching anecdotal evidence to unverified bodies.
What do you think of this @nathanwei? If not now, the next month may be a prudent time to quietly offload the NO. @Tumbles?
@Chumchulum I think you are delusional. The rate of reporting of reported starvation deaths has dropped quite a bit. 21 from September 19 to October 7. The food situation has gotten much better.
@nathanwei I don't doubt that the food situation has gotten much better but there is a backlog of uncleared cases. If my trading is delusional, be it so.
@Chumchulum The issue with that claim is that since the food situation has gotten better, the rate of reported starvation deaths has just dropped massively. If there was a backlog, they would keep coming at a high rate. Like, surely they'd get reported in the next few weeks with the current ceasefire?
@nathanwei I don't doubt that starvation may have already stopped, but one does not imply the other. The issue of discussion is the rate at which Gazan civilians claims of starvation, first brought to the GHM, are verified and reported by the GHM. Unverified claims unreported by the GHM form the backlog. The rate at which GHM can work through the claims and adjust its total report is conditional on the resumption of something resembling civil society, as they do or did have many civilian workers. Over the next few weeks, by 90 days at most as people return from refugee zones, we will certainly see.
@Chumchulum @traders We Hodl. As was not contested, now it's more profitable for the NO holders to sell as a return to normalcy in Gaza allows the true tolls to be verified. The ceasefire does not memoryhole them, but brings them into focus.
UN commission admits through gritted teeth that there's no famine in Gaza
Added "before market close" for clarity. This is not a forever market. Extended close through 2025 to be courteous to Yes holders though.
@Panfilo Will you extend it beyond 2025? I think the close date has caused some of us to trade against factual accuracy.
@Chumchulum Yes, since at this point we would probably have a big gap between closure and resolution if I didn't. Though I will reiterate that this market is about this particular hot chapter in the conflict, not the entire remaining history of Gaza.
@Panfilo If you feel particularly conservative you could only extend it to July 03rd, the 1000th day of the war.
@Panfilo Just making sure: you intend to go through with the extended close, not to close the market early due to if the ceasefire might end the "current conflict", correct?
@Chumchulum If the ceasefire goes past a month and the current conflict seems to have resolved, I will likely close the market to trading but not actually resolve it until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
@Balasar The previous ceasefire had a ton of fire during it. The new one is supposed to be much more thorough based on its specific points, though we don't have all the details yet. I have divested from this market already so if it's ambiguous, I will not bet further and will do my best to be neutral re: when we stop counting.
@Panfilo https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-tells-un-it-will-only-allow-half-of-agreed-number-of-aid-trucks-into-gaza-after-hamas-ceasefire-violation/
The Israelis saw fit to cut the city's aid in half because they didn't get a dead hostage's body. Supposedly this means the ceasefire is violated, the conflict goes on.