Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
29
1kแน21812026
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
For a bigger range:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
UN commission admits through gritted teeth that there's no famine in Gaza
sold แน10 NO
Added "before market close" for clarity. This is not a forever market. Extended close through 2025 to be courteous to Yes holders though.
Related questions
Related questions
How many Gazans will starve to death by the end of 2025?
Since the beginning of the Israeli siege will 500,000 or more Gazans die of any cause by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will 500,000 or more Gazans die of any cause by the end of 2025? As a result of the Israel siege
9% chance
In February, will the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carry out โฅ5 fatal airstrikes in Gaza whilst a ceasefire is active?
51% chance
Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
23% chance
Will the death toll in Gaza reach 100.000 before the end of the year?
12% chance
Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
8% chance
[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
19% chance
Will 50,000 or more Gazans relocate to Congo by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Israel commit war crimes by cutting off food/water, electricity, and fuel to the Gaza Strip?
78% chance