https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#Violations - I consider the

ceasefire to have been a success over the past month, so the war is considered to be over as per the definition of this market. A final resolution will occur in 2 weeks, giving Israeli newspapers more time to update their estimates.

2025 Gaza war ceasefire - Wikipedia

Looks like the ceasefire will be active on Feb 19: https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-end

So the market will close, and then Israeli sources will resolve to <64K.

@nathanwei note that market will resolve March 6 but will almost certainly close Feb 19th.

@nsokolsky Right, to give time for new reports. It seems all reports are <64K except for the Lancet which was slightly over 64K, so the market probably will resolve to 32-64K.

Has this basically become a proxy for Hamas releasing the hostages on Saturday?

Looks like Deep Research is more than capable of executing the quote search process within the defined bounds. Feel free to suggest prompts to use to ensure maximum coverage.

@nsokolsky

https://t.me/alexmehacarmel/24554

This is reporting on Al Jazeera numbers but published by Israeli telegram in Hebrew.

Does this count? Perhaps, if reporting from Lancet counts.

Abu Ali express definitely counts. I’ll find more links.

@nathanwei please see reformatted question text (did not add any new rules, just reformatted for readability)

@nsokolsky I guess this doesn’t count because it’s social media but not Abu Ali express level? The part where it cites Al Jazeera is OK, the issue is that it’s “social media” but not super high profile.

Market closure updated to Feb 19th, looks like ceasefire is holding up. Update to clarify: market is closed is Feb 19th (since after that market can't open up), resolution 2 weeks later on Mar 5th.

@nsokolsky unjustified,
it will take them time to count all the dead in the north that died previously, the numbers will change dramatically at the next weeks. This is not how you should change the resolution date of a market that has been running for 1.2 years.
I know it seems that since the ceasefire is on so the war "ended" but practically it will take them time to organize all the mess, and know the right numbers.

You shouldn't change the resolution date, being a bit more patient won't do any harm.

@CarmelHadar sorry, to clarify (this is also in the main question text). The market will close on Feb 19th as that's when the war is considered to be 'over'. Then there's 2 more weeks to give Israeli media publish new estimates.

@nsokolsky Would you consider this to be a successful market if you resolve to one range on March 5th, but then 4 months later Israeli sources are clearly saying the death toll was in a different bracket?

https://www.alquds.co.uk/حكومة-غزة-أكثر-من-61-ألف-فلسطيني-استشهدو/

غزة: أعلن رئيس المكتب الإعلامي الحكومي في غزة، سلامة معروف، الأحد، أن حرب الإبادة الإسرائيلية على قطاع غزة، التي استمرت أكثر من 15 شهرا، أسفرت عن استشهاد 61709 فلسطينيين، بينهم 17881 طفلًا، إضافة إلى تضرر أكثر من 450 ألف وحدة سكنية.

وقال معروف خلال مؤتمر صحافي عقده في مدينة غزة: “الإبادة الإسرائيلية بالقطاع أدت لاستشهاد أكثر من 61709 شهداء منهم 47487 وصلوا إلى المستشفيات وبقي 14222 مفقودا تحت الركام”.

Gaza: The head of the government media office in Gaza, Salama Maarouf, announced on Sunday that the Israeli war of extermination on the Gaza Strip, which lasted for more than 15 months, resulted in the martyrdom of 61,709 Palestinians, including 17,881 children, in addition to the damage of more than 450,000 housing units.

Maarouf said during a press conference held in Gaza City: “The Israeli extermination in the Strip led to the martyrdom of more than 61,709 martyrs, 47,487 of whom arrived at hospitals, and 14,222 remained missing under the rubble.”

Still 61709 < 64000.

@VonGadke what do you think happened to all the missing?, I bet at least 3K of them will be found dead...

@CarmelHadar Most of them yes, some part was outright invented:

https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/530328.aspx

“We have observed the evaporation of the bodies of 1,760 martyrs due to the (Israeli) occupation’s use of internationally prohibited weapons,” Gaza’s Civil Defense said at a press conference in Deir al-Balah.

These ones are definitely counted as missing even though I never heard that a human body can evaporate in non-nuclear explosion.

@VonGadke Do you have source backing up these "invented casualties" or is it your man-off-the-street opinion?

@GazDownright man-of-the-street, see the argument which I used

@VonGadke when there are news reports that thermobaric weapons can cause this kind of damage, I think you'll need to be a weapons expert, or refer to one, before you can deem it as "outright invented."

@VonGadke not an Israeli source

@nsokolsky Yes, but Arabic sources can be considered as upper bound

@nsokolsky

Abu Ali Express (a pretty reliable and popular Israeli channel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Ali_Express ) says that Hamas reports 61709 and that this is an overestimate. It is from February, so well within the relevant time. Also it is in Hebrew.

https://t.me/abualiexpress/87805

לשכת ההסברה של חמאס מפרסמת נתונים (מעט מוגזמים כהרגלה - א"ע) על נזקי המלחמה ברצועה: 61,709 הרוגים מתוכם 14,222 נעדרים מתחת להריסות. 111,588 פצועים. 6,000 עצורים נזקים ישירים של יותר מ 50 מיליארד דולר לכלל הסקטורים ברצועה ע"פ הערכות ראשוניות. נזק ל 450 אלף יחידות דיור מתוכן 170 אלף נהרסו כליל, 80 אלף נפגעו בצורה קשה ו 200 אלף נפגעו באופן חלקי.

אבו עלי אקספרס

לשכת ההסברה של חמאס מפרסמת נתונים (מעט מוגזמים כהרגלה - א"ע) על נזקי המלחמה ברצועה: 61,709 הרוגים מתוכם 14,222 נעדרים מתחת להריסות. 111,588 פצועים. 6,000 עצורים נזקים ישירים של יותר מ 50 מיליארד דולר לכלל הסקטורים ברצועה ע"פ הערכות ראשוניות. נזק ל 450 אלף יחידות דיור מתוכן 170 אלף נהרסו כליל, 80 אלף נפגעו בצורה קשה ו 200 אלף נפגעו באופן חלקי. כדי להגיב לכתבה לחצו כאן

@nathanwei Abu Ali is the most popular telegram account in Hebrew. But he only quotes Hamas ministry of health as he did that every day. It doesn't mean he acknowledged the numbers, in fact multiple times he questioned those numbers.

@CarmelHadar Yes, it says that this is if anything an overestimate. So it should be counted as giving an estimate under 62K. Has he given his own explicit numbers? Anyway, either way this is an Israeli media outlet reporting <=62K deaths.

I am somewhat displeased by the amount of lobbying going on in the comments section. I have withdrawn my stake in the market for that reason. I think it would be better if the market creator used the most credible source rather than doing this bizarre thing that weirdly promotes apologism. It is as if you asked Mao Zedong how many people died as a result of his Great Leap Forward and then presented the answer as remotely objective.

@Balasar I am linking Haaretz articles accusing Israel of committing genocide and talking about how the war has a big death toll...

@Balasar I agree that using the simple average of "all sources" is not a good solution. One could try to weight them by approximate popularity. I would probably prefer if @nsokolsky just used his own judgment.