Includes both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended. [see criteria below for what counts as an 'Israeli source' and for the war to be 'over']

Note

This market is only for Palestinian deaths, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the deaths are related to the war). This will not include any deaths from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.

OG market was created by @Shump

Clarifications of resolution criteria

The market's comment section got very active, so I'm publishing a summary of all the relevant comments here.

What counts as an 'Israeli source'

1. They must be published in Hebrew or Arabic, Israel's official languages. (added Jan 21st)

2. They must be published by an Israeli organization, with their HQ and primary operations in Israel. Subsidiaries of foreign networks, such as CNN or Al-Jazeera will not be considered Israeli sources. (added Jan 23rd)

3. Death toll figures reported by non-Israeli international organizations, such as the UN, will not be used under any circumstances - the market is about Israeli sources only (added Jan 23rd)

3a. Note that trustworthy Israeli sources will be accepted regardless of whom they're quoting as the source of their numbers.

4. Social media posts will not be accepted unless they are from a very high profile person or organization based in Israel. (added Jan 31st)

5. English articles, even if issued by Israeli media, will not be used as inputs because they are aimed at a foreign audience. (added Jan 31st)

Please submit more sources that meet the criteria above in the comments!

The definition of 'the war being over'

Either of the following should be true:

- There's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that lasts for at least 30 days. [Currently pending, the war will be considered over if ceasefire persists till Feb 19th, 2025]

- There's a 30-day period in which fewer than 100 people die on the Palestinian side due to the war, even in the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement.

(from October 13th, 2023)

How the market will be resolved

- All numbers published between Day 1 of the ceasefire and 6 weeks after the ceasefire started will be used, with a simple average of all sources. If any given ceasefire is interrupted, the market will be extended until next time. Current

- If a single publication publishes multiple numbers within the accepted time period, the creator will select the number they find most trustworthy or average the latest numbers if no specific number is highlighted.

- Each publication/source only counts as one input into the final average.

- [Now moot, we have post-Jan 19th numbers] Older numbers will be used if no new numbers are published between Jan 19th and Mar 5th.

(clarified on Jan 28th and Jan 29th)

Other updates
October 15th, 2023

I've sold all my positions to avoid bias when resolving this market.

July 8th, 2024

Since the war has lasted much longer than expected, resolving this market will likely be very difficult. Once the war is complete, I will ask for help from both Israeli and Palestinian Manifold/Metaculus users to help determine a fair estimate from Israeli sources.

January 19th, 2025

A ceasefire officially started on Jan 19th, 2025. If the ceasefire is still considered 'active' on Feb 19th, 2025, this market will close. It will then resolve on Mar 5th to give 2 more weeks for Israeli sources to publish estimates. Note that the criteria for what counts as the war being over have been pre-committed to and will not change at this point. (see comment from Jan 23rd) - also means that this market will not reopen if hostilities resume after Feb 19th.

• Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update Breakdown:

  • The market will almost certainly close on Feb 19th if the ceasefire remains active.

  • The final resolution will occur on March 6th (updating the previous note of March 5th).