[Bins up to 256,000] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side
<= 4,000
4,001 - 8,000
8,001 - 16,000
16,001 - 32,000
32,001 - 64,000
64,001 - 128,000
128,001 - 256,000

Including both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended.

Note: This market it only for Palestinian deaths, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the deaths are related to the war). This will not include any deaths from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.

UPDATE from Oct 13th:

The following criteria will be used to determine if the war is over. Either of the following should be true:

  • There's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that lasts for at least 30 days.

  • There's a 30-day period in which less than 100 people die on the Palestinian side due to the war, even in the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement.

Update from Oct 15th:

To avoid bias when resolving this market, I've sold all my positions and will no longer place additional bets.

See also

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Moved the close date to Nov 1st, 2025. I suspect the war will last at least 6 more months and then it'll take a few months for the full list of casualties to be finalized.

@nsokolsky And that's the source.

@CertaintyOfVictory I suspect in the end Israeli sources will report a similar number. But in any case the war will likely last at least 3 more months.

@nsokolsky They already report a similar number I think, I just wanted to make the source clear, because your description says it's about Israeli sources.

For those concerned about the aid collapse / mass starvation scenario:

@Panfilo Starving to death seems like a poor measure of the number of deaths due to food shortages.

Al Jazeera estimates that at least 118 people died in the Flour Massacre on February 29th. It seems silly not to attribute those deaths to the food shortage, but they did not starve to death.

@dph121 The causal chain and comorbidity make these questions complicated for sure. Since my markets are about starvation, maybe you should make one with a broader set of definitions!

opened a Ṁ150 32,001 - 64,000 NO at 64% order

Put up exit orders because although I think this market will eventually solidfy in 32-64, I think it will fuck me over in Leagues first.

Replaced casualties->deaths in the description to match the title of the question and previous comments on the subject.

Are we talking deaths, or casualties? They are not the same, as casualties typically include people who have been severely injured to the point they can no longer fight effectively.

Market close date moved to May 1st as the war seems to be far from over.

16-32k should be at 2% or lower.

@Panfilo Al-Jazeera reports 27,500 deaths as of yesterday (Feb 5th) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/6/israels-war-on-gaza-live-staggering-destruction-in-north-gaza-unrwa#:~:text=At%20least%2027%2C585%20people%20have,Hamas%20attacks%20stands%20at%201%2C139.

Not sure what their source is for that figure, but my guess is the Israeli figures, which this market relies upon, will tend to be lower than other figures.

NYT article about the communications blackout (don't forget gell-mann amnesia!) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/world/middleeast/gaza-war-palestinian-journalists.html

@CelebratedWhale what is your angle on this?

@ooe133 Palestinian death toll is > 24 000 + missing. The war does not seem to be ending soon and Bibi has suggested it may continue for months. Even if Israel's operation is scaled back, there will be many more deaths before the war ends and the current numbers may be an underestimate. As such I think it'll be at least 32 000.

I think it's unlikely to be over 64 000 as I think we've over half way through the war, at least in terms of death numbers. Israeli operations are likely to slow and international pressure to limit deaths will grow. For deaths to hit 64 000 it means this level of fighting for around 4 more months which I think is unlikely.

It's important to note that the population of Gaza was ~600,000. Killing half or a quarter would be a bit extreme, even if Iran was very willing to orchestrate that and the Israeli government faced regime change either way.

Edit: That is wrong, that number is not 600k. Google returns different numbers depending on whether you type "Gaza population" or "Gaza strip population". Wikipedia says 2.3m.

@ooe133 killing 10% would be extreme but that seems to be the direction Netanyahu is choosing.

@ooe133 Eg, WW1 killed 4% of Germany's population.

@ooe133 The population is 2.3 million, not 600k


@MartinRandall No Gaza strip itself is 2.3 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip?wprov=sfla1

You're probably confusing it with Gaza city, which has a populatiom of 600k.

@Shump you are right, thank you

@MartinRandall Did they use civilians as shields, though? With nowhere to go, and more than half gazans supporting this war suicide by army, 10% look like a conservative estimate.

@ICRainbow Gazans do not support the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Israelis do not support the Palestinian invasion of Israel. It is a war crime to target civilians, regardless of responses to opinion polls.

@MartinRandall I was replying to %%s being extreme relative to Germany.

@ICRainbow Most Germans supported the German side of WW1 just as most Gazans support the Palestinian side of the Israeli-Gaza war.

WW1 was before international law protected civilians, so the concept of human shields did not exist.

@MartinRandall concept or not, did they practice mixing with noncombatants for surprise strikes?

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