When will Nate Silver's new book be available?
16
219
913
2025
2%
Mar 2024
3%
Jun 2024
91%
Sep 2024
93%
Dec 2024
89%
Aug 2024

Nate Silver is working on his second book. (He's talked about the book at Manifest, and just interviewed me for it earlier this afternoon...!)

When will this book be released? This market resolves to YES for each option during which the book is available for general public purchase (eg Amazon release date). That is, if the book releases on Jun 15, 2024, then the answers "Jun 2024", "Sep 2024", and "Dec 2024" all resolve to YES. I may choose to add more months for better date granularity of answers, down the line.

See also Metaculus's prediction:

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bought Ṁ30 Sep 2024 YES

@Austin, I suggest you add an August answer. Then people can bet on whether it misses the announced date by more than a few weeks.

@bluefrog Done, thanks for the suggestion!

He interviewed you? I’m so excited to have someone of his caliber writing about Manifold! I hope it’s a bestseller!

@EricBolton haha yeah, super excited to see his take on the role of prediction markets.

Alternate market for Manifold: "how many Manifold employees will be cited in bestselling books by 2026?" we already have @Salty in Going Infinite"!

@Austin Just finished reading it! Ended up buying into Lewis’ starry-eyed account a bit, was disappointed to see the fairly conclusive evidence against SBF in the trial. What passage was @Salty cited in?

@EricBolton he was in the credits as having schooled Lewis at Storybook Brawl, haha.