Nate Silver is working on his second book. (He's talked about the book at Manifest, and just interviewed me for it earlier this afternoon...!)
When will this book be released? This market resolves to YES for each option during which the book is available for general public purchase (eg Amazon release date). That is, if the book releases on Jun 15, 2024, then the answers "Jun 2024", "Sep 2024", and "Dec 2024" all resolve to YES. I may choose to add more months for better date granularity of answers, down the line.
See also Metaculus's prediction:
Related questions
@Austin, I suggest you add an August answer. Then people can bet on whether it misses the announced date by more than a few weeks.
@EricBolton haha yeah, super excited to see his take on the role of prediction markets.
Alternate market for Manifold: "how many Manifold employees will be cited in bestselling books by 2026?" we already have @Salty in Going Infinite"!