If I enter the ACX Book Review Contest, will I be a finalist?
56
5.9k
2025
77%
chance

Refers to my first entry only in case I somehow enter two or more times.

I will not reveal, until the winner is announced, whether I entered the contest.

Resolves YES if review gets posted to ACX before the winner is announced.

Resolves NO if review is not so posted before the winner is announced.

Resolves to a % (likely market price) if I do not enter, once winner is announced.

If this trades high, I will also create a market on whether I will win.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 NO

Scott Alexander entered Scott Alexander's contest (which is judged by Scott Alexander fans) twice and only one of his reviews was a finalist. There is no way this should ever be over 50%.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 50% to 44%

@VinceVatter I need a notification bot that tells me when a price goes up to 80% after I just bidded it down to 40%

Given this already has a lot of action and is trading at 73%, sure, here everyone goes: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/if-i-enter-the-acx-book-review-cont-1450d39525d5