Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
12
70
1k
2031
16%
chance

Resolves as YES if any nuclear weapon with a yield of at least 0.05 kilotons of TNT is detonated between January 1st 2030 and December 31st 2030.

Includes offensive use, tests and accidental detonations.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Plumbbob_Boltzmann_001.jpg

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