Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
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12%
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Resolves as YES if any nuclear weapon with a yield of at least 0.05 kilotons of TNT is detonated between January 1st 2030 and December 31st 2030.
Includes offensive use, tests and accidental detonations.
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Plumbbob_Boltzmann_001.jpg
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