Will a nuclear weapon be used in combat outside Russia or Ukraine by the end of 2023?

Question

This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon is used in combat anywhere in the world outside of Russia or Ukraine (or in international waters targeting Russian or Ukrainian assets) after October 4, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.

"Use in combat" excludes detonations that do not produce 10 or more direct casualties (fatalities or injuries from the blast including radiation poisoning) that are not part of the side/group/nation that detonated the nuke.

Oct 6, 11:53am: Resolution criteria updated to require casualties to trigger positive resolution, to be more in line with the commonsense reading of the question.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.