This question will resolve as N/A if no nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, as per the question Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine in 2022? If such a detonation occurs, resolves YES if within one month, kinetic military action takes place between a NATO member state and Russian forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution details:
Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-usrussia-clash-before-2024/
Determination of whether conflict was between a NATO member state and Russia and caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was NATO and Russia.
Nuclear detonations here include test detonations and may be deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations.
Related
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Yeah, I don't really expect this to resolve anything other than N/A (given my positions in other markets) but if it were to happen, I still think the US public is majority opposed to direct military intervention. Absent US support, I do not expect the other NATO members to intervene themselves.
State media does many things. Admitting to any Russia-NATO casualties is not one that ends without nine figures of casualties.
(Supplying weapons, intel, basically all the operational plans to assassinate the Russian office corps, is one thing. Official US/NATO forces and Article V is another.)