This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office. This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot. A serious attempt to get in is enough. However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.
The market will likely resolve earlier in either scenario but I haven't bothered looking up filing deadlines to put in an earlier close date.
I'm going to not participate in this market. While I think the criteria are clear and binary, we've seen on other markets around this that things can get messy.
Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death Scenario Clarification:
The market will resolve as N/A if Donald Trump dies before taking any legal steps to run and before filing deadlines.
Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria for a Surrogate Strategy:
If there is any indication that a surrogate plan (e.g. using JD Vance or another figure) is in play and that candidate loses, a poll will be initiated to determine if that was the intended plan.
If the surrogate wins the election, the market will remain open for an extra week after the inauguration to allow time for the maneuver to be executed.
Update 2025-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coup Scenario Resolution:
If there are no elections due to a coup, the market will resolve YES.
The determination will rely on the resolution of the linked market: https://manifold.markets/MugaSofer/if-elected-will-trump-willingly-lea. If that market resolves with "Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails" as YES, then this market also resolves YES.
Note that if Trump gets on the ballot through standard procedures, this coup condition will not apply.
Update 2025-03-31 (PST): • Republican Legislative Efforts: If any Republicans mount a legal effort to legalize a third term before the next election, the market resolves YES, regardless of whether Donald Trump is mentioned in those bills, court cases, or any other legal documents required for legalizing a third presidential term. (AI summary of creator comment) - creator: such a legal effort would need to be taken to a vote or court respectively to ensure are least the Republican party themselves see it as serious. A single lawmaker bringing in a bill that is otherwise ignored is not sufficient.
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@Siebe health reasons is obviously a huge one and should tank this market to <10% if Trump follow's Biden's 2021->2024 deteroriation trajectory. My personal scenario is he's Dubya-2008 level unpopular (or as much as his floor is) towards the end that nobody's just in the mood for this kind of fuckery. He can afford these kind of hijinks now cause he's somewhat popular (relatively), the economy's not cratered, no major snafus etc...by 2028 everyone including Republicans will be sick of his BS
That's a big IF
He's very popular with Republicans, and generally the trend with authoritarians is that their base supports them intensely, for quite a long time, even as they lose support among the center
For the actual result, I have a market for when a 3rd Trump Term happens.
https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/3rd-trump-term-in
@AlexanderTheGreater This is already true, there is an open Republican amendment to change the prohibition on third terms in the Constitution. Do you mean something more concerted than that?
@Balasar ok, is it reasonable to say that there needs to be a vote or city hearing about such an effort to ensure even the republican party gives it sufficient credence?
@Simon74fe sorry, that was supposed to be "court hearing". I really shouldn't write these on the phone
@Balasar Market rules should also be broad enough to include events that do not require voting like military coups and the like. (Assuming the goal here is to do something like what you said in the comment on the poll.)
@Balasar ugh, good point! If there is any hint of that being the plan and JD (or whoever else fills that situate roll) loses, I'll start a poll to see if there is agreement that was the plan. If the surrogate wins the election, I'll keep the market open for a week after inauguration to allow them to execute the maneuver.
@Balasar another good point! If there are no elections due to a coup, this also resolves YES. I'll determine if there was a coup attempt based on the resolution of this market: https://manifold.markets/MugaSofer/if-elected-will-trump-willingly-lea
If that market's answer "Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails" resolves YES this market also resolves YES. I'd expect and hope, however, that he'd try to just get on the ballot first and this scenario hopefully doesn't matter.