Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
19
1kṀ42292028
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Joshua Zeitz argues that “the odds aren’t zero.” https://x.com/joshuamzeitz/status/1808130997436797139?s=46&t=KXHuklQ7fpBGC3MqBbD7ug
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 presidential election and be sworn in for a third term?
6% chance
Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)
7% chance
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
92% chance
If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
33% chance
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
26% chance
If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026?
2% chance
Will Trump serve until the end of his term in 2028?
74% chance
Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
28% chance
If Trump tries to run for a third term, how many Supreme Court Justices support him?
0.59
If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be elected for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
4% chance