51% chance. In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right? I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term. Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024 Resolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032. Edit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here. Edit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES.