Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
49
1kṀ10k
2030
10%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
88%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
1%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
1.1%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death

Live updating visualization of conditional odds:

How correlated are these events? Let's find out.

What counts?

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.

US Politics
Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
Trial of the Century
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A similar market, with similar odds:

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/donald-trumps-destiny?r=QW5zZWw

I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/

14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!

I found a market in the classical binary N/A style that thinks it's a 67% chance he serves time if he loses, where we currently show 80% here:

Well apparently there's actually a 35% chance he gets elected, and a 76% chance he serves time. This is the one correct market, everyone go arbitrage the other markets until they match this one!

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