Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
50
1kṀ10k
2030
10%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
88%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
1%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
1%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death

Live updating visualization of conditional odds:

How correlated are these events? Let's find out.

What counts?

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.

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