Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 2024 US Presidential ElectionπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US PoliticsTrumpRepublican PartyTrial of the Century
Basic
44
αΉ€3.2k
Jan 1
7%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
40%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
21%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
32%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death

Live updating visualization of conditional odds:

How correlated are these events? Let's find out.

What counts?

  • Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.

  • Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.

  • Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.

  • It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.

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A similar market, with similar odds:

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/donald-trumps-destiny?r=QW5zZWw

I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/

14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!

I found a market in the classical binary N/A style that thinks it's a 67% chance he serves time if he loses, where we currently show 80% here:

Well apparently there's actually a 35% chance he gets elected, and a 76% chance he serves time. This is the one correct market, everyone go arbitrage the other markets until they match this one!

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