Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
Basic
44
αΉ3.2kJan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
40%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
21%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
32%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
Live updating visualization of conditional odds:
How correlated are these events? Let's find out.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.
Get αΉ1,000 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/
14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!
Related questions
Related questions
When will Trump serve time?
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win the Presidential Election of the United States of America in 2024?
42% chance
If Donald Trump loses the election, will he serve time in 2025?
29% chance
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
39% chance
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024?
2% chance
Conditional on losing the 2024 election, will Donald Trump serve time?
47% chance
Will Trump be elected in 2024?
48% chance
Will trump run in 2024?
18% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
39% chance