Resolution criteria

YES resolves if between now and Dec 31, 2028, any of the following occur and are confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., major news outlets, DoD, Cuban Gov):

1. ≥10 combined fatalities resulting from intentional military action by either state.

• Fatalities must result from military forces (US Navy, US Air Force, US Marines, US Army, Cuban FAR, Cuban Navy, Cuban Air Force).

• Fatalities may occur to either side (US or Cuban) or third parties as long as they’re caused by a direct military action between the US and Cuban forces.

2. A confirmed US or Cuban airstrike, missile strike, or naval strike on the other’s territory, installations, ships, or aircraft.

• Does not need to target military facilities.

• Civilian infrastructure counts if the attacker is state military.

3. A direct armed engagement between the US and Cuban militaries

This counts regardless of location, including:

• Shots fired between naval vessels

• Intentional ramming

• Air-to-air engagement

• Missile launch targeting a military asset

• A Cuban military aircraft shot down by the US (or vice versa)

4. Covert actions by CIA or DI

• Assasinations

• Sabotage missions

Must be confirmed by a reputable news outlet (AP, Reuters)

WHAT DOES NOT COUNT

❌1. US Coast Guard or law-enforcement actions against drug boats do NOT count.

• Even if 10+ people die

• Even if it happens in the Caribbean

• Even if the victims are Cuban nationals

• Unless Cuban military assets are directly involved

❌ 2. Fatalities caused by law enforcement or anti-drug operations in international waters do NOT count.

Cuba, like Venezuela, frequently claims that USCG attacks are “acts of war” — but your market should not count this.

❌ 3. Covert operations that remain unconfirmed do NOT count.

If something is suspected to be CIA/JSOC but not confirmed, it doesn’t qualify.

❌ 4. Ambiguous-location incidents do NOT count.

Location must be clearly established to avoid disputes.

❌ 5. Activity involving only militias, smugglers, or nonstate actors does NOT count.

Even if US forces kill Cuban nationals, unless Cuban state military is involved, it doesn't qualify.