Trump says that the US is "running" Venezuela. To what extent does this imply boots on the ground for the foreseeable?
Resolves based on a consensus of credible reports
In the absence of exact reporting, resolves to my best judgement based on the available information (I may resolve to %)
PMCs don't count, members of any branch of the US armed forces or intelligence agencies do (as long as they are publicly admitted). This includes e.g. secret service members protecting high ranking US officials, generals/admirals on site advising, and soldiers stationed at the embassy in Caracas.
Resolution criteria subject to revision/clarifications for the next 7 days.
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I've resolved 99% to 1-50 and 1% to 50-100.
Why:
I couldn't find reporting of any general deployment.
The embassy is open, so some nonzero number of marines will be stationed there, but AFAIK this is typically <50.
The embassy just posted about doing military exercises on site, sharing a video which depicts two ospreys landing at the same time. AFAIK the fully loaded seated capacity of two MV-22 Ospreys is 56, plus whatever people were on the ground. This would be more than 50, but on the other hand, I don't know that they were fully loaded, and it was a week before resolution so maybe they're not there, and maybe they are not "stationed" there over this period anyway but stationed in Puerto Rico and just flew there for the day of the exercise or something.
Maybe there are some chances of a bigger embassy security staff because the embassy is in a relatively risky country and only just rebuilding.