How much of my twitter audience will report being a genius?

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resolved May 29

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I'm going to tweet "You are more of a: "Dumbass" or "Genius"" Upon poll resolve, what % of respondents will have chosen "genius"? May 27, 3:45pm: This is also my first time doing a numerical market and I'm not totally sure I'm doing it right. May 27, 4:01pm: Wanted to double-clarify, though I said it originally: the twitter poll will have only two options - "dumbass" or "genius."

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The poll is live, and going for 47% with 3,359 votes and 7 hours remaining. https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1530364757089439744

Actually, I'm a little confused about how markets incentivize providing true information. Don't I have an incentive to *not* post this, since I'm in effect encouraging other people to split the win pool with me?

@noumena I've had similar interrogations. I think your incentive is to bet yes/no according to what you perceive, and sharing informations so your share gain in value? The fact that manifold does not let you hold both yes shares and no shares is weird in that regard

I think markets that resolve to probability (like PROB is the percentage of people reporting to be geniuses in this case) work better.

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Do only correct answers win or if I am close to the right answer I will also win?

@PaweSysiak great question, I'd like to know the answer too

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@PaweSysiak @TedSuzman if you're close, you get paid relative to how close you are. The key concept to understand here is a pari-mutuel market. A place to start researching: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-change-numeric-market