If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
Plus
10
Ṁ1932031
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do it.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
71% chance
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
73% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
76% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
79% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
60% chance
Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?
63% chance
What percentage of people believe that sentient robots/AIs do not exist? (Per 2024 AIMS survey)
Will an AI have >10 million Twitter followers by 2025?
21% chance
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?
38% chance
In 2028, will at least 3.5m (1/100) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
66% chance