Will I write a satirical tweet in the next 6 months on the “trust the science” discourse, that gets more than 150 likes?
14
96
Ṁ466Ṁ270
Jul 15
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There has been a lot of Twitter discourse recently — mostly from Nate Silver — about misinformation, trusting the science, the validity of prediction markets versus expert consensus, and the epistemological approach to determining whether COVID-19 leaked from a lab.
Sometimes I join twitter discourse by writing a satirical tweet. I plan on doing that for this particular topic.
So, let’s see what prediction markets think about the odds that I exceed 150 likes with one of these tweets.
This question resolves yes if I (@mealreplacer) post a tweet between January 14th 2024 and July 14th 2024 (inclusive) satirizing this topic, that gets more than 150 likes.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?
50% chance
Will I write a doc (blog post, published or not), by Jan 31, 2024, on my favorite and productive strategies for use?
23% chance
Will anyone on Twitter make a credible claim that I am arguing for something in bad faith by the end of 2025?
22% chance