Will I write a satirical tweet in the next 6 months on the “trust the science” discourse, that gets more than 150 likes?
14
94
270
Jul 15
73%
chance

There has been a lot of Twitter discourse recently — mostly from Nate Silver — about misinformation, trusting the science, the validity of prediction markets versus expert consensus, and the epistemological approach to determining whether COVID-19 leaked from a lab.

Sometimes I join twitter discourse by writing a satirical tweet. I plan on doing that for this particular topic.

So, let’s see what prediction markets think about the odds that I exceed 150 likes with one of these tweets.

This question resolves yes if I (@mealreplacer) post a tweet between January 14th 2024 and July 14th 2024 (inclusive) satirizing this topic, that gets more than 150 likes.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ10 of NO

bought some NO to motivate quality poasting

bought Ṁ80 YES from 79% to 84%
predicts YES

@Rodeo Respect tbh