Will Manifold change Numeric markets to use binary CPMM?
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Currently they're implemented using 100 DPMM buckets, which is hard to interpret and doesn't give fixed payouts. Could do 100 CPMM buckets, but that's just inferior to binary CPMM + range liquidity provisioning via uniswap v3. I think.
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Some immediate benefits of using CPMM:
- Numeric markets and binary markets could use the same codebase
- This means you can sell your numeric shares!
- Also, it's much easier to bet UP or DOWN on a numeric market, and have that mean something
Some downsides:
- To implement betting on a normal distribution, we'd have to work out some math to implement range orders https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3 . It's not clear to me how many users like betting with a distribution, tho, vs betting UP or DOWN
@Austin I think you'd want more distribution modifying tools like Metaculus has, not just mean and SD for normals, before you can get much value from betting that way. (Ofc, you can just place bets on multiple distributions to get a similar effect.) UP vs DOWN is a lot easier for newcomers; maybe UP | DOWN | CUSTOM options?
Thanks for asking!
DPM stands for Dynamic Parimutuel, a somewhat deprecated market maker: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/DPM-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5
CPMM stands for Constant Product Market Maker, our main system used in YES/NO bets: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Maniswap-ce406e1e897d417cbd491071ea8a0c39
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