If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
11
57
Ṁ196Ṁ230
2031
71%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do it.
Related markets:
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
19% chance
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?
38% chance
Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2024?
65% chance
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
73% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
64% chance
Will an AI have >10 million Twitter followers by 2025?
28% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
64% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
47% chance
In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
41% chance