Carson Gale
closes Jan 1, 2026
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to the generic market creation leaderboard at market close. If a user does not have a Twitter account, that counts as a "no" for resolution purposes.
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Carson Gale
Will I have more followers on Manifold than Twitter by end of 2025?34%
Isaac King
By the end of 2023, will anyone with at least 1 million Twitter followers be actively using Manifold?41%
Isaac King
Will anyone with at least 50,000 fans be discovered to have been using an anonymous Manifold account by the end of 2024?66%
James
Will Manifold reach 10,000 daily active users (7d average) by April 1st?4%
Related markets
Carson Gale
Will I have more followers on Manifold than Twitter by end of 2025?34%
Isaac King
By the end of 2023, will anyone with at least 1 million Twitter followers be actively using Manifold?41%
Isaac King
Will anyone with at least 50,000 fans be discovered to have been using an anonymous Manifold account by the end of 2024?66%
James
Will Manifold reach 10,000 daily active users (7d average) by April 1st?4%