If Aella and Destiny become romantically involved for any length of time before the end of 2024, this market resolves YES, even if they later stop being involved.
For the purposes of this market, "romantic involvement" constitutes voluntary physical intimacy (sex, kissing, hand-holding, etc.) along with mutual expressions of love or romantic emotions. It does not include platonic friendship or anything that only occurred because someone paid for it or because one of them wants to manipulate this market
I reserve the right to resolve this market to N/A if Destiny or Aella asks me to, out of respect for their privacy
If no clear evidence for YES has energed by the end of 2024, I'll leave this market open for a few weeks afterwards just in case it took a while to become public. If nothing has come to light by then, this will resolve NO.
I’m placing some YES limit orders, but I think the true probability of this is <10% - I just don’t want to hold so much NO for so long when the Destiny people will continue to prop the market up. So if someone wanted to buy NO imo my limits, I think it’d be a win-win!
@Conflux After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’re poly and have appeared on stream together and Destiny has a decent high base rate of being romantically involved with women on his stream.
Does anyone know how many people Aella has been romantically involved with in the last few years? I can’t find a list anywhere.
Based on her showering schedule, there are only 30 days a year where a serious sexual interaction is viable between them. I don't like those odds. easy NO
I see several questions about what constitutes "romantic involvement". This is definitely somewhat vague, so I'd like to clarify. At the moment, I'm thinking it'd be best to include:
Voluntary physical intimacy: sex, kissing, hand-holding.
Expressions of love or romantic interest.
And to not include:
Platonic friendship
Any of the things in the first list that only occurred because one party paid for it or wants to manipulate this market.
If this is still too vague, or you disagree, please let me know.
Also, since Destiny and Aella are both not that much of a public figure, and are both somewhat involved with the Manifold community, I think it would be polite to offer to resolve this market N/A if either of them asks me to do so, since it's on a rather personal topic.
@IsaacKing It says "before the end of 2023" in the description but "by the end of 2024" in the title.
@IsaacKing I could argue that one sided love isn't real love it would rather be just obsession but I don't believe that love is a thing so either way I guess it shouldn't count
@Alyssa Note that you can also click the eyeball in the top right to follow a market without placing a comment or bet.
people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they both appear together, the real profit lies there
The more you know: limit orders are better than “quick” trades unless you suspect the market is permanently moving into a different range.
Sorry to sabotage volatility traders' source of income, but I don’t enjoy anyone unnecessarily taking a bath.
Base rate for 2 people becoming romantically involved given only that they've had a small amount of contact online over a 2 year period is trivially <5%. I doubt it's significantly higher even if 1 is poly.
All the people betting YES on this market either know something I don't, or are smoking something I'm not...
@AngolaMaldives Especially when their politics and personalities and social circles are that far apart.
@AngolaMaldives its been known that destiny has one night stands with about 40%+ of his female orbiters. badbunny, invadervie, sushia, littlefox, arianina, bigbossboze, anavoir, merrick deville and probably we don't know more about.
The number of people with positions on this market that need to go to horny jail is ridiculous.
Also, @IsaacKing, I guess you really should clarify what “romantically involved” means here.
the condition of being in a romantic or sexual relationship. –top Google result, some dictionary
@yaboi69 "relationship" implies it's more than a one nightstand or prostitution
Good luck with that because one lives in Austin and the other in Miami and she's way out of his league. Also he'd probably be triggered by a lot of her opinions. This market should be basically the risk free rate.
@JonathanRay I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their question. I think I'll wait for the market to be higher and sell my shares hopefully without losing mana
I think casual sex should count, given how closely sex and romance are tied in most cultures.
@JonathanRay I’m super curious why you chose this to gamble so big and so early (before you even had good potential returns)
@SaladDongs Until? That doesn't answer the question does Destiny have to be romantically involved until the end of the year?
What if they are for most of the year but they completely stop interacting with each other in December would that count? If not why?
A description would really help...
@SaladDongs No I don't think so. I hope not
Are you? I don't understand why you're asking me this question.
@SeraphinaNix they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at least once in that two year timespan.
@Agh hmmm hooking up once doesn't sound like "romantic involvement" to me though; we need specific resolution criteria I guess
@SeraphinaNix What else would mean romantic involvement? Is Steve supposed to leave Melina for this to resolve yes? Lol
@Gen you'll get back whatever you put in as loans over the next 50-100 days or so (2% per day). So your mana won't be locked up that long. You can even pump some of the loaned mana back into the same market and get leveraged returns.
@anne She blocked him again on his new account? Last I saw, she had followed the DestiDarko account.
@DalibanAdjacent Oh shit, I just remembered from her convo with MrGirl that she said she blocked him. I’m so happy they’re interacting :)
Manifold in the wild: Mrredacted Starting The Walkback It Was All