IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
closes Jan 1, 2025
Will Aella be romantically involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?
26%
chance

If Aella and Destiny become romantically involved for any length of time before the end of 2024, this market resolves YES, even if they later stop being involved.

For the purposes of this market, "romantic involvement" constitutes voluntary physical intimacy (sex, kissing, hand-holding, etc.) along with mutual expressions of love or romantic emotions. It does not include platonic friendship or anything that only occurred because someone paid for it or because one of them wants to manipulate this market

I reserve the right to resolve this market to N/A if Destiny or Aella asks me to, out of respect for their privacy

If no clear evidence for YES has energed by the end of 2024, I'll leave this market open for a few weeks afterwards just in case it took a while to become public. If nothing has come to light by then, this will resolve NO.

Sort by:
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ60 of NO

I’m placing some YES limit orders, but I think the true probability of this is <10% - I just don’t want to hold so much NO for so long when the Destiny people will continue to prop the market up. So if someone wanted to buy NO imo my limits, I think it’d be a win-win!

Conflux avatar
Conflux
is predicting NO at 23%

@Conflux *buy NO into my limits

Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Conflux After a bit of research/conversation I’m now less confident - I think the 15-20% range might be reasonable, since they’re poly and have appeared on stream together and Destiny has a decent high base rate of being romantically involved with women on his stream.

Does anyone know how many people Aella has been romantically involved with in the last few years? I can’t find a list anywhere.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ37 of NO

@Conflux it's a great "what is the best reference class" market.

tetsuo avatar

@Conflux she literally in one of their convos that she wanted to invite him to on her orgies bit he lived to far away

Gen avatar
Genzy
bought Ṁ0 of NO

Based on her showering schedule, there are only 30 days a year where a serious sexual interaction is viable between them. I don't like those odds. easy NO

IsaacKing avatar

I see several questions about what constitutes "romantic involvement". This is definitely somewhat vague, so I'd like to clarify. At the moment, I'm thinking it'd be best to include:

  • Voluntary physical intimacy: sex, kissing, hand-holding.

  • Expressions of love or romantic interest.

And to not include:

  • Platonic friendship

  • Any of the things in the first list that only occurred because one party paid for it or wants to manipulate this market.

If this is still too vague, or you disagree, please let me know.

Also, since Destiny and Aella are both not that much of a public figure, and are both somewhat involved with the Manifold community, I think it would be polite to offer to resolve this market N/A if either of them asks me to do so, since it's on a rather personal topic.

IsaacKing avatar

@IsaacKing No complaints, so I'm amending the description now.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard
is predicting NO at 23%

@IsaacKing It says "before the end of 2023" in the description but "by the end of 2024" in the title.

yaboi69 avatar

Note that the deadline is for Jan 1, 2025, too.

IsaacKing avatar

@NamesAreHard Oh, whoops. Fixed.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 18%

@IsaacKing Does romantic involvement have to be mutual?

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 18%

@MartinRandall What do you mean?

IsaacKing avatar

@MartinRandall Good question. Yes.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 18%

@IsaacKing I could argue that one sided love isn't real love it would rather be just obsession but I don't believe that love is a thing so either way I guess it shouldn't count

IsaacKing avatar

Wow, this market blew up.

Alyssa avatar
Alyssa
bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm using this comment to keep track of this market

IsaacKing avatar

@Alyssa Note that you can also click the eyeball in the top right to follow a market without placing a comment or bet.

EugeneBixby avatar
EugeneBixby
bought Ṁ15 of YES

Similar market, not as weird.

JapanStuff avatar

PEPE

ManifoldDream avatar

Manifold in the wild: Mrredacted Starting The Walkback It Was All

THATS WHAT I'M SAYING! BUY THIS STONK NOW! https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-aella-be-romantically-involved

Kermit avatar
Kermit
bought Ṁ5 of YES

Let's see if Mr.Girl was right lol!

chair avatar
chair
is predicting YES at 22%

people seem to take this as face value which i think misses the point. this market is going to spike every time they both appear together, the real profit lies there

yaboi69 avatar

The more you know: limit orders are better than “quick” trades unless you suspect the market is permanently moving into a different range.

Sorry to sabotage volatility traders' source of income, but I don’t enjoy anyone unnecessarily taking a bath.

chair avatar
chair
is predicting YES at 23%

@yaboi69 investing in this vague market is the highest risk by itself, why would someone put their money where they knew that the conditions themselves weren't exact

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 24%

This market is amazing I already made 140$M profit

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldives
is predicting NO at 22%

Base rate for 2 people becoming romantically involved given only that they've had a small amount of contact online over a 2 year period is trivially <5%. I doubt it's significantly higher even if 1 is poly.

All the people betting YES on this market either know something I don't, or are smoking something I'm not...

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmett
is predicting NO at 20%

@AngolaMaldives Especially when their politics and personalities and social circles are that far apart.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting NO at 16%

@AngolaMaldives personally I was just here to make profit buying low selling high

0o0 avatar
0o0
is predicting YES at 18%

@AngolaMaldives its been known that destiny has one night stands with about 40%+ of his female orbiters. badbunny, invadervie, sushia, littlefox, arianina, bigbossboze, anavoir, merrick deville and probably we don't know more about.

EdwardKmett avatar
Edward Kmett
is predicting NO at 21%

The number of people with positions on this market that need to go to horny jail is ridiculous.

yaboi69 avatar

@EdwardKmett Harsh but fair self-criticism

yaboi69 avatar

Also, @IsaacKing, I guess you really should clarify what “romantically involved” means here.

the condition of being in a romantic or sexual relationship. –top Google result, some dictionary

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
bought Ṁ312 of NO

@yaboi69 "relationship" implies it's more than a one nightstand or prostitution
Good luck with that because one lives in Austin and the other in Miami and she's way out of his league. Also he'd probably be triggered by a lot of her opinions. This market should be basically the risk free rate.

yaboi69 avatar
Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@JonathanRay I've been tricked way too many times with these types of markets where you have to guess what the creator meant by their question. I think I'll wait for the market to be higher and sell my shares hopefully without losing mana

IsaacKing avatar

I think casual sex should count, given how closely sex and romance are tied in most cultures.

yaboi69 avatar

@JonathanRay I’m super curious why you chose this to gamble so big and so early (before you even had good potential returns)

0o0 avatar
0o0
bought Ṁ2,664 of YES

they definitely going to fuck

Sex avatar
Sex
bought Ṁ241 of YES

What counts as romantically involved

IsaacKing avatar

@Sex See the thread above about this.

StevenK avatar

Usual question about whether "by" means "at" or "at any point before"

SaladDongs avatar

@StevenK until

Simon1551 avatar

@SaladDongs Until? That doesn't answer the question does Destiny have to be romantically involved until the end of the year?

What if they are for most of the year but they completely stop interacting with each other in December would that count? If not why?

A description would really help...

SaladDongs avatar

@Simon1551 Are you autistic?

Simon1551 avatar

@SaladDongs No I don't think so. I hope not

Are you? I don't understand why you're asking me this question.

jonsimon avatar

@Simon1551 I hate to break it to you but that sounds an awful lot like a "yes"

Jotto999 avatar

@Simon1551 You can check a self-assessed autism quotient here.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Jotto999 I'm not autistic 😭

Jotto999 avatar
Jotto 999
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Simon1551 For quality of life, that's for the better.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 14%

@Jotto999 I shouldn't have done the test

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 14%

@Jotto999 Online tests are inaccurate anyways.

JosephNoonan avatar
Joseph Noonan
sold Ṁ30 of NO

@Simon1551 You should take this one instead, it's more accurate.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 14%

@JosephNoonan I don't click links like that am I about to get rick rolled?

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 14%

@Simon1551 alright I'll remember the link now

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting NO at 16%

@Jotto999 I've been questioning my entire life thanks to you and the website you sent me. 😠

IsaacKing avatar

@StevenK At any point before.

budududupow avatar

Does hooking up count for Yes? How many times do they have to hook up?

IsaacKing avatar

@budududupow See the comment thread above about this.

SeraphinaNix avatar

How is this so high, what?

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting YES at 11%

@SeraphinaNix You going to wait 2 years for 9%? Even at no risk it’s not worth it. Should be 20%+

Agh avatar
Agh
is predicting YES at 9%

@SeraphinaNix they are both in open relationships, they had some good talks, doesn't seem that unlikely that they would hook up at least once in that two year timespan.

SeraphinaNix avatar
Seraphina Nix
is predicting NO at 11%

@Agh hmmm hooking up once doesn't sound like "romantic involvement" to me though; we need specific resolution criteria I guess

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting YES at 8%

@SeraphinaNix What else would mean romantic involvement? Is Steve supposed to leave Melina for this to resolve yes? Lol

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington
is predicting NO at 24%

@Gen you'll get back whatever you put in as loans over the next 50-100 days or so (2% per day). So your mana won't be locked up that long. You can even pump some of the loaned mana back into the same market and get leveraged returns.

DesTiny avatar

who dat

Zion avatar

@DesTiny girl who came on stream today

DesTiny avatar

@Zion okok

IsaacKing avatar

@Zion Aella was on a stream with Destiny? Do you have a link?

gee avatar
Gee
is predicting YES at 21%

@IsaacKing They've hung out on stream multiple times at this point.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
bought Ṁ606 of NO

Congrats on tricking the bots into buying so much yes

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡
is predicting NO at 10%

@JonathanRay how did he

anne avatar

It kills me they aren't friends! She blocked him on Twitter :(

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting NO at 6%

@anne Why?

DalibanAdjacent avatar
Daliban Adjacent
is predicting YES at 7%

@anne She blocked him again on his new account? Last I saw, she had followed the DestiDarko account.

anne avatar

@DalibanAdjacent Oh shit, I just remembered from her convo with MrGirl that she said she blocked him. I’m so happy they’re interacting :)