Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Question

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (522 traders, as of Sep 23, 2026).