Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

MANIFOLD

284

Ṁ1kṀ89k

Dec 1

56%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

Market context

US Politics

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Something feels mispriced. There's mana to be made for somebody to fix this.

2026 Maine Senate Race

Graham Platner: 46% (-3)

Susan Collins (inc): 45% (+3)

2026 Maine Senate Race Among Independents

Susan Collins (inc): 43%

Graham Platner: 37% Quantus poll | 6/9-6/11

2026 Maine Senate Polling Averages Per Decision Desk

Graham Platner: 47.2% (-2.7)

Susan Collins: 45.1% (+3.4)

Texas, Alaska, Ohio

Republicans are toast

@AndrewG when do you decide to resolve? If a republican changes to caucus with dems on 30 November will that mean democrats win if it takes them from 50 to 51