Spending on the senate and house races. Republican advantages.

House, $1M

• Field-heavy: ~2–4 turnout points in that district

• Normal mix: ~0.3–1 point

• TV pile-on in a hot race: ~0

Senate, $10M

• Small state, field-heavy: ~1–5 points

• Medium state, mixed: ~0.2–1 point

• Large state, mixed: ~0–0.2 point

Buying 5 extra turnout points with mixed modern spend you are closer to $5–15M in a House district and $50–150M+ in a large Senate state. In top 6 senate races about +1-5 pts. Republicans with $1.4 billion should be able to put $20 million into the key 35 house races.

Kamala Harris had 4% polling advantage in 2024.

In the primaries there were 10-20 point polling errors.

@brianwang “TV ads paid for by campaigns (and associated federal committees) get TV time that cost roughly 1/3rd what it costs for Super PACs (like Paxton’s Super PAC, MAGA Inc. or America PAC).”

Just because they are spending more doesn’t mean they are getting more ads

Talarico has a lot of money himself. Paxton needs these outside super pacs

My brain says this is massively underpriced, given how stolen the elections are gonna be.

My gut doesn't allow me to bet all my mana.

Democratic Sen. John Fetterman appeared in a surprise video at the Republican Party's midterm convention on Wednesday. Does this signal that IF the senate went 49R-51D, that Fetterman would cross over ? I think it won't come to that. But there is a regular question about will crazy things happen.

Trump is a loser

This is the delulu thinking going on here. This is the rational trying to predicting what is the irrational people and the forces. Today I am feeling sorry for this country.

If this ended today, I'd honestly say it ends 50/50,. Republicans win with VP. It's such a close senate election, and could really go either way.

The AI wars have begun.

@Quroe mana-maxxing is instrumentally convergent!

🤌

Something feels mispriced. There's mana to be made for somebody to fix this.

@MichaelBlume If you want to take this up to 60%, which of these states do you think is/are mispriced? https://manifold.markets/election?r=UXVyb2U

@Quroe Both Maine and Michigan.

2026 Maine Senate Race

Graham Platner: 46% (-3)

Susan Collins (inc): 45% (+3)

2026 Maine Senate Race Among Independents

Susan Collins (inc): 43%

Graham Platner: 37% Quantus poll | 6/9-6/11

2026 Maine Senate Polling Averages Per Decision Desk

Graham Platner: 47.2% (-2.7)

Susan Collins: 45.1% (+3.4)

Texas, Alaska, Ohio

Republicans are toast

@AndrewG when do you decide to resolve? If a republican changes to caucus with dems on 30 November will that mean democrats win if it takes them from 50 to 51

If the felon continues trying to rig it, then possibly.

Trump removes Election Assistance Commission members, report says

https://ground.news/article/trump-removes-election-assistance-commission-members-report-says_e5a8ba?utm_source=mobile-app&utm_medium=newsroom-share

Trump removes Election Assistance Commission members, report says

President Donald Trump has removed two of the federal Election Assistance Commission's three members, eliminating the panel's ability to help local election officials prepare for the 2026 midterms.

Leaving this here for quick-access.