Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
20
190Ṁ1602
2026
80%
chance
9

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

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If the felon continues trying to rig it, then possibly.

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