The US is headed, I doubt the mid-terms will run, and if they do doubt Trump will allow the results to go through without issue.
Expect he will either nullify the result (if not his way) or rig them to give him the result he wants

Resolution criteria

The 2026 US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves YES if the elections occur as scheduled on that date. The market resolves NO if Trump or his administration successfully prevents, postpones, or cancels the elections before they take place.

Resolution will be determined by whether voting actually occurs on November 3, 2026, as reported by major news outlets and official election authorities. If elections are held on the scheduled date, the market resolves YES regardless of any subsequent disputes over results or their validity.

Background

The 2026 midterm election will occur during Trump's second term, with all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats contested. In early January 2026, Trump mused about canceling the elections, saying "I won't say cancel the election, they should cancel the election" because the media would call him a dictator. The Trump administration has undertaken several tactics including mid-decade redrawing of congressional districts, prosecution of political opponents, and a push to change voting methods and rules meant to undermine confidence in the midterm elections.

Considerations

Trump is using every tool he can find to try to influence the 2026 midterm elections and sow doubt in their results if his party loses, with many endeavors going far beyond typical political persuasion and challenging long-established democratic norms. However, preventing elections from occurring entirely would require extraordinary executive or legislative action that faces significant constitutional and institutional barriers.