Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time. There will be no waiting period to observe how elected officials vote after taking office.
Wikipedia's verdict on control will stand unless the creator strongly disagrees with it.
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@moobunny It comes down to “control”. If those republican senators’ decisions are substantially determined by democratic decisionamaking, such that they can be essentially defined as “caucusing with Democrats” I.e. more than 50%of the time they vote with the Democrat bloc, then they are in Democrat control. Wikipedia will be a primary source but if facts diverge substantially from Wikipedia’s opinion of “control” then I will use my judgment.
@Ansel No, that is not what partisan control means, and it is not okay to change the resolution criteria that drastically this far into trading.
@Ansel Please retract that statement so we can go back to betting on partisan control of each chamber of Congress rather than on Ansel's capricious opinions on whether Lisa Murkowski is a RINO or whatever.
@AlexMennen Ok, let me clarify. The question outlines an extremely unlikely scenario that was not contemplated in the original question.
For this to matter, you’d have to have enough Jim Jeffords or Phil Gramms, who survive the election and swing control to the opposite side and do not switch parties. Even those two switched parties eventually. So: A 50-50 Senate with one Phil Gramm type Democrat who usually votes Republican.
With Manchin retiring, there are no remaining current candidates for this sort of contrarianism. Golden, Perez, Fitzpatrick - even they all vote with their own party 80+% of the time.
I’ll reiterate that Wikipedia’s verdict on control will stand unless I strongly disagree with it. The market resolves immediately after the election is finalized, there’s no new “waiting to see how they vote”.
How people think this is somewhere above 20% is beyond me. Democrats need to pick up 3 senate seats just to tie and 4 to flip. Even assuming a massive blue wave, we'll see maybe Maine and North Carolina flip - that's 2. After those, you'd need to flip some of the states that people are still pretending are swing states; Florida, Texas, Ohio, Alaska. I really don't see a path for them to do this that doesn't involve them having some sort of massively successful grassroots organizing campaign, and I don't see that happening in any of these states.
@Marnix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska
i think by far the most likely path is Maine + North Carolina + Ohio + Alaska, and it probably "just" requires a 2018-level wave + peltola running. i've placed a small limit order at 20% if you're interested
@SaviorofPlant This feels like a far more likely path than anything involving Florida or Texas, but even Ohio feels like it'd be a major longshot. They'd need to pull out all the stops in a way they haven't done for almost 20 years. 2028 feels far more likely to me - pick up Maine and NC, keep everything they've got now (already kind of a massive ask), and then in 2028 they keep everything they've got and then pick up Wisconsin and the other NC seat without losing Pennsylvania (even bigger ask, especially if Fetterman runs for reelection).
@Marnix sherrod brown will be the nominee again - he won by 7% in the last blue wave midterm election, and only lost by 3.5% in 2024. he's also not running against an incumbent who won a previous senate election but rather the governor's nominee to replace vance
i have a different order at 40% for brown winning ohio on this market: https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/if-jd-vances-senate-seat-opens-up-w?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA
i think alaska is the weakest link here since peltola may run for governor instead, and would be up against a 12-year incumbent instead of sarah palin
@EvanDaniel I will resolve according to this Wikipedia page, once the results are finalized:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress
The two independent senators caucus with the Democrats and that's how they're counted, so I assume the same would apply for the House.
Yes, a senate tie resolves according to the Vice President's party.