Will the supreme court rule against affirmative action and in what specific way?
Basic
11
Ṁ3598
resolved Jun 30
50%23%
banned, ruling applies more generally than schools or comes with a stringent test or remedy
50%75%
banned, no further conditions apply
1.7%
weakened but not banned, or only applies to harvard/unc
0.2%
no change or strengthened

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Ṁ1,000
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Can the term "affirmative action" apply to achieving equity through non-demographic considerations, such as by accounting for lived experiences?

does anybody have a link to the actual text of the opinion? was going to read it to ensure it couldn't be construed as "weakened but not banned"

"Eliminating racial discrimination means eliminating all of it."

@cloudprism That’s from Thomas’ Opinion, I think: not Roberts writing for the majority?

@MarcusAbramovitch holy fuck it's so long why did i make this market

@brubsby it also includes basically instructions for how to circumvent the ruling, in that personal essays which mention race are not to be tossed, so that seems like a point for "weakened but not banned" as surely this allows schools to do some implicit form of adhoc affirmative action still

@brubsby this is not saying to factor race into the admissions. Just that the essay a student writes can talk about race.

@MarcusAbramovitch true, but that's going to be exploited as a loophole by admissions. They'll use it as proxy. Harvard has already said so in essence.

@NicoDelon i think that in deciding which bucket of the guesses that this falls into, this specific piece doesn't meet the criteria of "weakened but not banned, or only applies to harvard/unc", because it is banned, and to my understanding more broadly so than just the schools in the lawsuit.

@brubsby agreed, I think it's the first option (stringent test).

@NicoDelon I mean, this particular loophole is not the test. The circumstances in which race can be considered constitute the test. It's discussed on another market.

@NicoDelon could you link the discussion?

@NicoDelon it doesn't seem like this ruling comes with FURTHER conditions as it primarily relies on the existing concept of "strict scrutiny" and that unc/harvard's current usage of race did not meet strict scrutiny. it also seems to meet the criteria of having a stringent test (although extracting a block of text that contains the exact stringent test or remedy, or summarizing it, seems difficult to me now), so i'm leaning toward going 50-50 on the first two, but open to discussion still.

@brubsby I'll rule 50%-50% as described unless any persuasive arguments are made against my reasoning above. Probably in the next 5 hours or so. It also feels right that this is also very close to resolving it to market, but was not the goal of my reasoning.

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