Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

15

Ṁ1kṀ3.6k

2028

15%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Biden has claimed that, in his view, the Equal Rights Amendment has already been ratified as the 28th Amendment:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/17/politics/joe-biden-equal-right-amendment

But the Archivist previously rejected this argument:

https://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2025/nr25-004

Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what will not count as the Supreme Court "deciding the status" of the Equal Rights Amendment for the purposes of this market:
- Denying a petition for a writ of certiorari.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028?

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Will the number of justices on the SCOTUS be increased by the end of 2028?

Will an amendment be added or repealed from the Constitution before the end of 2029?

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Will the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Would denying a petition for a writ of certiorari count?

@noaht2 No, I wouldn't count that.

Related:

People are also trading

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028?

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Will the number of justices on the SCOTUS be increased by the end of 2028?

Will an amendment be added or repealed from the Constitution before the end of 2029?

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Will the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

Related questions

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028?

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Will the number of justices on the SCOTUS be increased by the end of 2028?

Will an amendment be added or repealed from the Constitution before the end of 2029?

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Will the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution be altered or repealed before 2028?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?