Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of September 2023?
1.9k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

Description from @agentydragon

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@Bread How is this resolution wrong?

@8 Also, you don't even have shares????

If you misunderstood the criteria, just let me know !

predicted YES

I will make sure everyone's comments are addressed by the end of September and will not resolve until I have a general consensus.

Has this actually happened?

@jskf no, I instead will be refunding everyone who misunderstood the criteria.

@jskf What's with the two stars?

bought Ṁ166 of YES

unprompted by me, while doing a normal google search, i was asked if i wanted a generative ai response in a (logged into a google account) search, i clicked sure and this popped up. also, when in incognito mode while doing searches, i've begun to start getting prompts to log in, presumably so they can do this.

predicted YES

also getting reports from my non-tech friends that they are getting this behavior as well. by what criteria could this possibly still be a no resolution?

@brubsby will be resolved at the end of September. It needs to not be part of labs (see: "experiment") or anything similar.

predicted YES

end of september resolution is fine, not an issue. but, this doesn't seem to be a separate thing called labs, this is just... entirely embedded on the main google search. and i don't think the "experimental" caveat included in the copy is indicative of small rollout status rather than just standard corporate liability-speak, especially with a societally experimental technology like LLMs.

"[...]a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog." it just asks you if you want ai from the main search page with a big notification banner and you say yes, and then it's always there.

"Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public." this true right now and directly conflicts with your comment "It needs to not be part of labs"

predicted YES

I realize some of the NO bettors might be thinking this goes away before the end of september, but I'm asking, "if this resolved now, surely it would be YES, right?"

predicted NO

@brubsby I'm not getting it - the original June variant ( /agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo ) often had Google running AB tests and confusing people into buying YES, despite the market ultimately resolving NO.

predicted YES

@Mira that's at least a tenable position, although I wish this market had more concrete resolution criteria for proportion of users between 1 and 100% in the US, as right now it seems like it's in a gradual general rollout phase.

@brubsby currently this is what I'm getting:


This clearly indicates this is still in the "experiment" phase. But it might happen by the end of September, who knows?

predicted YES

@8 lip service to it being an "experiment" alone doesn't seem to preclude a YES resolution here, per the resolution criteria, which only mentions "small experiment[s]" being excluded.

@brubsby This is directly copied from Rai's description, so I do not have full command over the language, but this indicates that this must be on the google.com home page. The "Try now" is equivalent to being whitelisted for google's generative AI.

sold Ṁ11 of YES

@8 "Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public." how would it not be this?

@brubsby I am but a pawn in markets of the arbitrage variety. I will make sure everyone's comments are addressed by the end of September and will not resolve until I have a general consensus. I will even go so far as to refund users that traded in this market without an initially clear market description.

predicted YES

@8 hm, doesn't going with the consensus/majority bias the resolution towards the side with the most traders? It seems like people should put forth arguments, but someone needs to be a judge unless you can get a lot of non-traders to contribute.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@8 does this count?

@MrLuke255 I'm relying on @BTE to judge this, also it will only resolve at the end of September

predicted YES

It's available for me now