Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of January 2024?
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resolved Feb 1
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NO

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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bought Ṁ40 of YES

We can clearly see the options "Ask a follower count up" which strongly implies a chatbot.

Source:

https://blog.google/products/search/google-search-generative-ai-learning-features/

predicted NO

@xenochain But requires a chrome extension and is labs only.

predicted YES

@BTE I'm not claiming that the market should be resolved YES now, but that there is enough momentum to predict that a chatbot will be released before EOY.

predicted NO

@xenochain It has also been there for 5 months

predicted NO

@xenochain But yes that is the criteria that is met now

predicted YES

Why is this so low compared to Gemini in 2023?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Why the sudden sharp drop?

predicted NO

@jonsimon I started betting today

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BTE I am very confused by your betting. Most of the trades on this market are you buying and selling lots of NO. And this question is well below the same question for December 2023. I tried to arbitrate a bit, and that quickly made me one of the biggest holder of YES here.

Are you trying to get rid of mana or something?