Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of March 2024?
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resolved Apr 1
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NO

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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This one should resolve to yes - I’m clearly seeing an option to summarize and prompt - including other things like write me a sonnet when I search.

bought Ṁ50 YES

This should resolve to yes - I'm able to search, summarize, and ask follow up questions unrelated to my original query chat GPT style (e.g., write me a song about a horse)

@jdilla I guess there may come situations where it's not clear whether or not it should resolve yes. But to me it does not seem as if it should resolve yes at this point.

It says in the description that it has to be "easily accessible from Google search home page", and "not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog".

I have not yet seen this feature myself. Even if I was able to get the same popup that you get (I don't know how I would get it to show up), that still seems like a somewhat meticulous way to get to the chatbot from the google search home-page (if the popup only pops up for certain niche queries, so that I have to write a niche query as a roundabout way of getting to the chatbot).

@TorBarstad I agree with one thing you said and disagree with another.

I agree that if we can come to the conclusion that I'm in some 1% test group that then it should not resolve to yes. By definition, though, that seems unlikely! I'd like to see more evidence here.

I disagree that it should not resolve to yes if it only gets triggered on certain queries as that is nowhere in the description and doesn't affect the accessibility.

In either case, here's a screenshot of what I see when I'm at Google.com, including the option to get AI overviews. Once these overviews are enabled on a search then I'm able to give it generic prompts and get responses ala ChatGPT.

Hopefully @BTE will weigh in here soon.

@jdilla It’s currently requires the Google Labs plug in and is also not accessible outside of Chrome. It has to be native to search no extension necessary. So it’s still no.

@BTE I definitely don't have a Google Labs plug in installed on on chrome (see the image). I didn't have to go opt anything in — Google prompted me to try it out after a search.

I'm not sure about browser support, but I think this meets the criteria you laid out:

> Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

✅ open to the general public

✅ easily accessible from Google search

✅ not something you have to get whitelisted for, be a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog

Happy to send you a quick screen share if it helps

@jdilla Share a screenshot of your full browser window if you don't mind? Though it says pretty clearly in your original screenshot "experimental". I am pretty confident Google will make a formal announcement when it is a fully productionized feature.

@BTE tried to capture the user flow here as best I could

1) Go to Google.com <- note the promotion of AI assisted search

2) do a typical search, get prompted with the option to summarize

3) choose this option

4) write you a sonnet

Note that your original description doesn't say anything about a product announcement, just promotion on Google.com

@jdilla Love that sonnet, but my dude that little beaker in the upper right hand corner shows you are definitely enrolled in the "search labs".

@jdilla > I disagree that it should not resolve to yes if it only gets triggered on certain queries as that is nowhere in the description and doesn't affect the accessibility.

If you often have to "hack" yourself into using the Chatbot via searching for queries you're not really interested in, then from my point of view that does affect accessibility.

Anyway, the description doesn't try to enumerate how it would evaluate in any specific case (although it does give some examples). And also, it doesn't try to define everything (e.g., what's meant by "accessible from google.com homepage"). So there is significant ambiguity, and I guess we both take the risk that the market creator interprets things differently from how we would 🙂

@BTE but this is my point - i didn't have to go find search labs in order to get enrolled. Google prompted me to join from the search results page and opted me in from the search results page.

if this isn't broad promotion, i don't know what is.

@jdilla It’s not available to everyone natively. Who cares how you ended up in labs? It even calls it “experimental”.

@BTE here's why I think how it happens matters:

i think how i ended up in labs matters because of the question of the criteria you set:

  • open to the general public

  • easily accessible via google search

  • not buried in some settings dialog (i'm paraphrasing you here)

If I had gone to find the labs settings and then opted myself in, I'd agree with you that this is a no. In that case, it fails the buried in some settings dialog test.

But instead, Google prompted me from the search results page to try this new thing - in that case I think we can agree that it is easily accessible and not buried in some settings dialog. The fact that Google is storing my opt in via Search labs seems like an implementation detail.

How would this have to be different for you to resolve as yes?

@jdilla It's still possible it's only giving that prompt to a small number of users. The description says that "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count, and basically everything Google does is progressively rolled out by testing with a small number of users before the full launch, it's possible that you're in that group of users. The only way to rule that out is either an official announcement of the release, or many people reporting that it's available

For the record, I've not bet on this market. Just thought I would share what I know about how tech companies roll out new features.

@TonyPepperoni as you'll know, most things that Google launches never have 100% availability — there are holdback groups for testing, restricted geographies. is there a specific point in the roll out that classifies it as available?

it is possible that i'm in some special 1% test, i'll grant (although, by definition, unlikely). i welcome further evidence here.

i think this is where we need clarity from @BTE on what the true resolution criteria are - if the criteria is "Google puts out a product announcement" and "Google removes the setting from search labs", I'm fine with that, but we should put it in the description.

Does Gemini/Bard need to be available to non-signed-in users on Google.com?

@PlainBG needs to be available without any added software. As of now it requires Search Labs.

does this count as a chat bot

predicted NO

@strutheo are you enrolled in search labs?

@BTE no , this was from a friend

predicted NO

@strutheo I think the key thing to keep in mind is that is must not require any added extension. Currently it does.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BTE ah, are you saying he is in some limited release program he might not be aware of?

predicted YES

@BTE what do you mean by extension? like a browser addon

predicted YES

@BTE ahh i understand, yes he is in search labs

bought Ṁ225 of NO

@strutheo correct. currently it requires enrollment in Search Labs and you must download a browser extension. I think anyone can enroll.