Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of August 2023?
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resolved Sep 1
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NO

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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Google Search seems to think YES. Not sure if I'm in some beta program and this is not available to everyone.

predicted NO

@StefanGoettsch It is labs. And it requires the Chrome extension so wouldn’t count.

fyi, 8 other markets for arbitrage

september - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-59c198fb8429

october - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a959e732d95b

november - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-e0aa2893e9a8

2023 1 - https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-06422b9d501e

2023 2 - https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-ccc13e521ab6

jan - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a82568d8e719

feb - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-18077c5f6a57

mar - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-63b6438f5c74