Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".
Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.
Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.
If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.
Description from @agentydragon
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3.00@MarcusAbramovitch TBH I still didn't know how this would be resolved up until now. It seemed like the market had made its decision though.
fyi, 8 other markets for arbitrage
august - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-524fb26267a8
september - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-59c198fb8429
october - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a959e732d95b
2023 1 - https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-06422b9d501e
2023 2 - https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-ccc13e521ab6
jan - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a82568d8e719
feb - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-18077c5f6a57
mar - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-63b6438f5c74
@AstroNaught Actually it says it "ends in December". Idk what that means but its not typical of Google to do that having beta tested every product they have launched since Gmail.
@Heliscone It might, but that doesn’t matter because it’s not a chatbot like ChatGPT at all. It basically just auto-summarizes content, including some real time data, but that’s it. No content generation as is clearly laid out in the resolution criteria.
@BTE To count it would have to be Bard included with google search. I think Google will probably wait until Gemini release to include a chatbot with the search. They still MIGHT do Bard before then depending on how well Bing does.
I think like 30% chance Gemini release before end of November and it's included as a chatbot, 10% chance it's Bard, 60% chance there is no chatbot (my estimate will probably change since I just typed this out in 30 seconds without really thinking over it)