Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of November 2023?
resolved Dec 1

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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predicted NO

Can we get this resolved?

predicted YES
predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch TBH I still didn't know how this would be resolved up until now. It seemed like the market had made its decision though.

i don't see it

bought Ṁ100 of YES

fyi, 8 other markets for arbitrage

august - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-524fb26267a8

september - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-59c198fb8429

october - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a959e732d95b

2023 1 - https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-06422b9d501e

2023 2 - https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-ccc13e521ab6

jan - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a82568d8e719

feb - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-18077c5f6a57

mar - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-63b6438f5c74

bought Ṁ60 of NO

It very clearly states in the current Google Search chatbot experiment that it expires in October.

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@BTE what do u mean expire.. like no longer an experiment so it's pub then no?

predicted NO

@AstroNaught Actually it says it "ends in December". Idk what that means but its not typical of Google to do that having beta tested every product they have launched since Gmail.

@BTE Could that mean the beta version ends in exchange for an official version?

predicted NO

@Heliscone It might, but that doesn’t matter because it’s not a chatbot like ChatGPT at all. It basically just auto-summarizes content, including some real time data, but that’s it. No content generation as is clearly laid out in the resolution criteria.

@BTE Oh yes, definitely, I was just commenting on the specific search labs thing.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@BTE To count it would have to be Bard included with google search. I think Google will probably wait until Gemini release to include a chatbot with the search. They still MIGHT do Bard before then depending on how well Bing does.

I think like 30% chance Gemini release before end of November and it's included as a chatbot, 10% chance it's Bard, 60% chance there is no chatbot (my estimate will probably change since I just typed this out in 30 seconds without really thinking over it)

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I got enrolled in an "semi-on by default" "ask an LLM" thing but it's not really conversational yet. Still quite useful.