Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of February 2024?
resolved Mar 1

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

Has to be accessible from google.com homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on Google.com homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on Google.com, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

I get this.

I'm imagining them included it on the search results page. You know, in a bubble right next to the Images, Maps, Translate bubbles. Would that count or does it need to literally be linked form the homepage?

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley Needs to be linked. I think I am going to defer resolution to the original market creator as long as they are cool with that @agentydragon ?

I’m missing why Bard doesn’t count.

predicted NO

@CoryS No link to it on the homepage.

@CoryS It has to have a link on Google.com that says “Bard”? Edit: I think we clicked send at exactly the same Moment. I also think this is a weird requirement, so my mana stays in my wallet. There are almost zero links on the Google home page.

predicted NO

@CoryS Has to have a link to any Google chatbot out of beta/labs and generally available to all Google users.

@BTE I’m not a special user, as far as I know… all good! Take care!

predicted NO

@CoryS Not a bad decision. It was there for a couple months during the original instance of this market and then they took it away and it cause quite a controversy.

predicted NO

@CoryS We are all special users in my opinion!!

fyi, 8 other markets for arbitrage

august - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-524fb26267a8

september - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-59c198fb8429

october - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a959e732d95b

november - https://manifold.markets/8/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-e0aa2893e9a8

2023 1 - https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-06422b9d501e

2023 2 - https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-ccc13e521ab6

jan - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-a82568d8e719

mar - https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-google-search-include-a-chatbo-63b6438f5c74