What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
69
15kṀ54k
2026
0.8%
0-10%
3%
10-20%
13%
20-30%
24%
30-40%
22%
40-50%
13%
50-60%
9%
60-70%
6%
70-80%
5%
80-90%
4%
90-100%

This market is duplicated from and inspired from

/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-nzPCsqZgPc

The best performance by an AI system on the new Last Exam benchmark as of December 31st 2025.
https://lastexam.ai/


Resolution criteria

Resolves to the best AI performance on the multimodal version of the Last Exam. This resolution will use https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam as its source, if it remains up to date at the end of 2025. Otherwise, consensus of reliable sources may be used (or Moderator consensus).

If the number reported is exactly on the boundary (eg. 10%) then the higher choice will be used (ie. 10-20%).

See also:
/Bayesian/will-o3s-score-on-the-last-exam-be

/Bayesian/which-of-frontiermath-and-humanitys

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