
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
69
15kṀ54k2026
0.8%
0-10%
3%
10-20%
13%
20-30%
24%
30-40%
22%
40-50%
13%
50-60%
9%
60-70%
6%
70-80%
5%
80-90%
4%
90-100%
This market is duplicated from and inspired from
/Manifold/what-will-be-the-best-performance-o-nzPCsqZgPc
The best performance by an AI system on the new Last Exam benchmark as of December 31st 2025.
https://lastexam.ai/

Resolution criteria
Resolves to the best AI performance on the multimodal version of the Last Exam. This resolution will use https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam as its source, if it remains up to date at the end of 2025. Otherwise, consensus of reliable sources may be used (or Moderator consensus).
If the number reported is exactly on the boundary (eg. 10%) then the higher choice will be used (ie. 10-20%).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
68% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2025?
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
35% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
55% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
60% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
68% chance
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance